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Caixin China Manufacturing PMI (December 2024) 50.5 vs. expected 51.7 | Forexlive

Caixin China Manufacturing PMI (December 2024) is a disappointment at 50.5

  • vs. expected 51.7 and prior of 51.5

In really brief, some highlights lowlights:

  • New orders and output growth both slow from November
  • Employment down marginally
  • Average selling prices decline despite rising input prices

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From the report, in summary.

This report highlights a mixed picture of sustained, but moderating, growth in China’s manufacturing sector as external demand and cost pressures weigh on optimism.

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Comparing the two manufacturing PMIs from China each month:

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As background to this, over the past six months, China’s manufacturing sector has exhibited varied performance, as reflected in the Caixin China General Manufacturing PMI and the official National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) Manufacturing PMI.

Caixin China General Manufacturing PMI:

  • July 2024: Decreased to 49.8, indicating a contraction in manufacturing activity for the first time in nine months.

  • August 2024: Rose to 50.4, signaling a return to expansionary territory and market improvement.

  • September 2024: Fell to 49.3, marking the lowest reading since July 2023 and reflecting a downturn in new orders.

  • October 2024: Increased to 50.3, indicating a return to expansion, supported by renewed growth in output and new orders.

  • November 2024: Further rose to 51.5, the fastest expansion since June, driven by strong growth in foreign orders and output.

NBS Manufacturing PMI:

  • July 2024: Slight decrease to 49.4, indicating a stable climate level in the manufacturing industry.

  • August 2024: Improved to 49.8, showing a softening contraction in factory activity.

  • September 2024: Rose to 49.8, ending a two-month decline and marking the highest notch in five months.

  • October 2024: Increased to 50.1, surpassing the threshold for expansion for the first time since May.

  • November 2024: Further rose to 50.3, aligning with market consensus and marking the highest reading since April.

  • December 2024: Slightly decreased to 50.1, indicating minimal growth in manufacturing activity.

Comparison:

  • Trend Alignment: Both indices generally moved in tandem, reflecting similar trends in the manufacturing sector.

  • Magnitude of Change: The Caixin PMI often exhibited more pronounced fluctuations, possibly due to its focus on smaller, private firms, compared to the NBS PMI’s broader scope, including larger state-owned enterprises.

  • Expansion and Contraction Signals: Both PMIs indicated periods of contraction and expansion, with the Caixin PMI showing a quicker return to expansion in October, while the NBS PMI indicated expansion starting in October as well.