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Economic calendar in Asia Monday, January 6, 2025, services PMI from China due | Forexlive

The item of most interest on the data calendar is the Caixin service PMI from China, for December 2024.

We had the official PMIs from China last week, where services showed marked improvement:

We also had the Caixin manufacturing PMI:

Today it’s the services PMI from Caixin/S&P Global. I suspect it’ll have improved from November. That’s the consensus also. It is, of course, a completely different indi actor to the official services PMI. I’ve popped a bit of a brief run down of the differences down lower in the post if you are interested.

  • This snapshot from the ForexLive economic data calendar, access it here.
  • The times in the left-most column are GMT.
  • The numbers in the right-most column are the ‘prior’ (previous month/quarter as the case may be) result. The number in the column next to that, where there is a number, is the consensus median expected.

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Key differences between the official services PMI from China and the Caixin/S&P Global services PMI:

1. Compiling Organizations

  • Official Services PMI: Compiled by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) of China in conjunction with the China Federation of Logistics & Purchasing (CFLP). It’s part of the broader official PMI data, which includes manufacturing and non-manufacturing (services + construction) PMIs.
  • Caixin/S&P Global Services PMI: Compiled by S&P Global based on a survey of private sector companies, sponsored by Caixin Media.

2. Target Respondents

  • Official PMI: Surveys a larger sample size with a focus on state-owned enterprises (SOEs) and large companies. It reflects the performance of the broader, often government-influenced economy.
  • Caixin PMI: Focuses more on small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) and private companies. It is considered a better gauge of the private sector’s health.

3. Methodology

Both indices use similar methodologies based on diffusion indices, where readings above 50 indicate expansion and below 50 indicate contraction. However:

  • The Official PMI has a broader scope since it includes construction activity in its non-manufacturing PMI.
  • The Caixin PMI is more narrowly focused on pure service sector activity.

4. Economic Representation

  • Official PMI: Often shows trends influenced by government policy, infrastructure projects, and public-sector activity. It may appear more stable due to the dominance of large, established firms.
  • Caixin PMI: Reflects the more dynamic private economy, making it potentially more volatile but also more sensitive to shifts in the business environment.

5. Release Timing

  • Official PMI: Released monthly, usually on the last day of the month for the previous month’s data.
  • Caixin PMI: Released shortly afterward, typically in the first week of the following month.