EUR: Looking at 1.040 more than 1.050 – ING

The euro continues to be driven by US events, from tech news to the tariff threat. Neither a cautious Fed today nor a dovish-leaning ECB tomorrow will trigger a material EUR/USD rebound, ING’s FX analyst Francesco Pesole notes.

Risks are skewed towards a move below 1.040

“We estimate the risk premium on EUR/USD at 2%, which is consistent with the resurging risk of universal tariffs by the US following Trump’s comments earlier this week. We think that the confirmation that the US Treasury is actively laying out a plan for tariff implementation should prevent that risk premium gap from being closed.”

“We don’t expect EUR/USD to trade much further from the current spot by the end of the week. If anything, we believe the risks are skewed towards a move below 1.040 rather than a return above 1.050.”