USDCAD continues up and down volatility but with a short term ceiling in place. What next? | Forexlive

The USDCAD is experiencing volatile price action today after similarly choppy movements on Monday and Tuesday. Earlier this week, the pair’s upside stalled just below the 61.8% retracement of the 2025 trading range at 1.4547, failing to sustain momentum above a key “Red Box” consolidation zone between 1.4268 and 1.4471. Notably, the upper boundary of this range aligns with the 50% midpoint of the 2025 range, reinforcing its significance as a key resistance level. Staying below this level keeps sellers in control.

Ahead of that, traders are watching the 100-hour moving average (blue line) at 1.44487, which could act as an intraday pivot. On the downside, key support levels include the swing level at 1.4366 and the rising 200-hour MA at 1.4354—both of which need to be broken for sellers to strengthen their grip. A move below these levels could shift focus back toward the lower boundary of the “Red Box” at 1.4268.

Technically, this structure provides traders with clear guardrails—outlining where price is contained and where breakouts could shift momentum. However, fundamentals remain a key driver, capable of rapidly pushing price toward or beyond these technical barriers. While buyers had control earlier in the week, sellers have regained momentum today. The question now is—can they maintain it?