The USDCAD is trading near lows going back to November.What is needed to tilt bias higher? | Forexlive

The USDCAD broke below its 200-day moving average for the first time since October 2024 last week. That key technical level, currently at 1.3999 (effectively 1.4000), marked a significant shift in bias when breached. The move lower drove the pair into a familiar swing area between 1.3843 and 1.3898 (rounded to 1.3900), which has been a key zone of interest in the past.

Yesterday, the pair briefly dipped below the lower bound of that range before rebounding. Today, it edged slightly above the upper end, but has since retreated back into the middle of the zone as traders wait for the next directional catalyst.

A break above 1.3900 could see the pair target the 61.8% retracement of the September 2024 rally at 1.3943, followed by a retest of the 200-day MA at 1.4000. Conversely, a move below 1.3843 with momentum would likely invite further selling pressure, pushing the pair into a broader consolidation zone. That area defined price action between August 2022 and November 2024 before the breakout, suggesting potential for more choppy, range-bound trading if downside support gives way.

1.4 (.4000 level