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US Dollar unable to recover as markets see Trump scapegoating Fed’s Powell 

  • The US Dollar trades sideways on Tuesday after hitting a three-year low on Monday. 
  • Markets brace for a batch of Fed speakers, Tesla earnings to be watched after the closing bell. 
  • The US Dollar Index remains sub 100.00 marker as Trump intensifies attacks on Fed Chair Jerome Powell.  

The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the performance of the US Dollar (USD) against six major currencies, goes nowhere on Tuesday near a three-year low. Markets got caught by surprise as the US Dollar took a hit during Asian trading hours while European and US markets were trading on limited capacity due to the Easter Monday bank holiday. United States President Donald Trump has shifted his focus now to the Federal Reserve (Fed) and lashed out at its Chairman Jerome Powell, calling him “a major loser” for not lowering interest rates while looking at ways to get rid of the Chairman, putting further downward pressure on the Greenback. 

On the economic calendar front, all eyes are on the leading Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) preliminary data for April on Wednesday and the Durable Goods orders on Thursday. For this Tuesday, a slew of Fed speakers are lined up to speak, while the less-important Richmond Fed Manufacturing data for April will also be published. 

In US equity markets, the focus will be on the Tesla (TSLA) earnings call after the US closing bell, when CEO Elon Musk could announce his departure date from the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE).

Daily digest market movers: Fed members to shield Powell

  • At 13:30 GMT, Patrick Harker, President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, participates in a seminar on economic development at the University of Pennsylvania, focusing on regional growth and financial inclusion.
  • At 14:00 GMT, Fed Vice Chair Philip Jefferson gives a speech on “Economic mobility and the Dual Mandate” at the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia Economic Mobility Summit, Philadelphia.
  • The Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index for April is due in that same time span, around 14:00 GMT. Expectations are for further contraction to -6, coming from -4 in the previous reading.
  • Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari will speak around 17:40 GMT as he participates in a Q&A at the US Chamber of Commerce Global Summit in Washington DC. 
  • Closing remarks for this Tuesday around 22:00 GMT from Federal Reserve Bank Governor Adriana Kugler, who gives a speech on “Transmission of Monetary Policy” at the Heller-Hurwicz Economics Institute 2025 Roundtable, Minneapolis.
  • After the US closing bell, all eyes will shift to Tesla earnings. Rumors are that Tesla Chairman Elon Musk is set to announce in the call his departure date from the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE), NBC reports. 
  • Equities are looking for direction on Tuesday with minor losses in Europe while US equities are up near 1% on average as they try to rebound from Monday’s losses. 
  • The CME FedWatch tool shows the chance of an interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve in May’s meeting at 10.4% against no changes at 89.6%. The June meeting is still having around 62% chances for a rate cut. 
  • The US 10-year yields trade around 4.39% after US bonds have been selling off quite substantially over the past few weeks. 

US Dollar Index Technical Analysis: More to come

The US Dollar Index (DXY) is saying goodbye to the 100.00 marker for now. Incurred losses from Monday are being consolidated this Tuesday while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is penetrating the oversold area. More downside could be rather limited from here as some sort of technical bounce looks likely before the DXY could drop another leg lower. 

On the upside, first resistance comes in at 99.58, which could trigger a firm rejection in any recovery attempts. Should Dollar bulls resurface, look for 100.22 with a break back above 100.00 as a bullish signal of their return. A firm recovery would be a return to 101.90, which acted as head-and-shoulders base line since 2023.

On the other hand, the low at 97.73 is very close by and could snap at any moment. Further below, a rather thin technical support comes in at 96.94, before starting to look at the lower levels of this new price range. These would be at 95.25 and 94.56, which would mean fresh lows not seen since 2022.

US Dollar Index: Daily Chart

Fed FAQs

Monetary policy in the US is shaped by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed has two mandates: to achieve price stability and foster full employment. Its primary tool to achieve these goals is by adjusting interest rates.
When prices are rising too quickly and inflation is above the Fed’s 2% target, it raises interest rates, increasing borrowing costs throughout the economy. This results in a stronger US Dollar (USD) as it makes the US a more attractive place for international investors to park their money.
When inflation falls below 2% or the Unemployment Rate is too high, the Fed may lower interest rates to encourage borrowing, which weighs on the Greenback.

The Federal Reserve (Fed) holds eight policy meetings a year, where the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) assesses economic conditions and makes monetary policy decisions.
The FOMC is attended by twelve Fed officials – the seven members of the Board of Governors, the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, and four of the remaining eleven regional Reserve Bank presidents, who serve one-year terms on a rotating basis.

In extreme situations, the Federal Reserve may resort to a policy named Quantitative Easing (QE). QE is the process by which the Fed substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system.
It is a non-standard policy measure used during crises or when inflation is extremely low. It was the Fed’s weapon of choice during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. It involves the Fed printing more Dollars and using them to buy high grade bonds from financial institutions. QE usually weakens the US Dollar.

Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse process of QE, whereby the Federal Reserve stops buying bonds from financial institutions and does not reinvest the principal from the bonds it holds maturing, to purchase new bonds. It is usually positive for the value of the US Dollar.