Market Outlook for the week of 12th – 16th May | Forexlive

Monday will be a light day in terms of scheduled economic events. On Tuesday, Japan will release the BoJ summary of opinions; in the U.K., we’ll get the claimant count change, the average earnings index 3m/y, and the unemployment rate. In the U.S., the main focus will be on the inflation data.

On Wednesday, Australia will release the wage price index q/q and on Thursday the employment change and the unemployment rate. Also on Thursday, in the U.K. we’ll get the GDP m/m and the preliminary GDP q/q figures and in the U.S., the PPI m/m, retail sales m/m and unemployment claims. Fed Chair Powell will speak at the Second Thomas Laubach Research Conference in Washington, D.C.

Finally, on Friday, we’ll get the preliminary UoM consumer sentiment and inflation expectations.

In the U.S., the consensus for the core CPI m/m is 0.3% vs. the prior 0.1%; for the CPI m/m, it is 0.3% vs. the prior -0.1%; and the CPI y/y is expected to remain unchanged at 2.4%.

Last month’s decline in the monthly reading was due to softness in volatile categories such as energy, travel, and lodging, which are areas affected by economic uncertainty, government austerity, and anticipation of tariff changes.

While similar headwinds persisted into April, seasonal patterns and the early effects of tariffs, particularly on auto prices, may begin to push core goods inflation higher, according to analysts from Wells Fargo. However, the full impact of the tariff policies will not yet be visible in inflation this month.

In Australia, the consensus for the wage price index q/q is 0.8% vs. the prior 0.7%. In the December quarter, wage growth came in below analyst forecasts and the market consensus.

Overall, annual wage inflation declined from 3.6% to 3.2% in the previous quarter. This week’s data is not expected to show improvement, and the outlook remains subdued; however, the annual rate is expected to hold steady at 3.2%.

The consensus for the employment change in Australia is 20.9K vs. the prior 32.2K, while the unemployment rate is expected to remain unchanged at 4.1%.

In March, employment rose by 32.2K, but was flat in Q1 2025 overall. According to Westpac analysts, the uneven monthly prints likely reflect softer population growth, which has also contributed to a decline in labour force participation from recent highs. Given the ongoing moderation in population growth, a modest employment increase in April is likely to keep the employment-to-population ratio steady.

Recent labour force data has shown a notable shift in participation, with the rate falling from a peak of 67.2% in January to a more stable 66.7–66.8% range in recent months. This emerging downtrend appears cyclical, likely reflecting reduced pressure on households to seek additional work as inflation eases and cost-of-living concerns begin to subside.

The expectation for participation to remain at 66.8%, along with an unchanged unemployment rate at 4.1%, reflects the resilience of the labour market amid softer population and employment growth, according to Westpac.

In terms of monetary policy, the RBA will continue monitoring labour market data alongside inflation, which has been softening. The bank is expected to proceed with gradual rate cuts of likely one per quarter, with analysts forecasting additional 25 bps cuts at the August and November meetings.

In the U.S., the consensus for core retail sales m/m is 0.3% vs. the prior 0.5%, while retail sales m/m are expected to be flat at 0.0% vs. the prior 1.4%.

The recent rise in retail sales was largely driven by households accelerating big-ticket purchases, especially autos, in anticipation of upcoming tariffs, evidenced by a 5.3% surge in vehicle sales. However, strength extended beyond tariff-sensitive categories: restaurant spending rose 1.8%, and the control group (which feeds directly into GDP) posted a solid 0.4% gain, suggesting underlying consumer momentum remains strong, according to Wells Fargo analysts.

Looking ahead, the sustainability of consumer spending will depend on whether March’s strength was primarily due to front-loaded demand. If purchases for big-ticket items like vehicles were pulled forward, it could lead to softer spending in the coming months as households scale back.

However, early reports indicate that auto sales remained robust in April, likely delaying any major slowdown. As a result, retail sales for April are expected to post a modest overall gain, with non-auto categories rising a steady 0.3%.