USDCHF Technical Analysis:Sellers hold edge below confluence resistance, but floor is firm | Forexlive

The USDCHF is trading with a modest bearish tilt in the short term, as price remains capped below a key confluence zone around 0.8363. This level marks the intersection of the 100-hour and 200-hour moving averages, as well as a downward sloping trend line — making it a clearly defined bias-defining level. As long as the pair remains below this zone, sellers hold the upper hand.

However, the downside momentum has yet to fully assert itself. Sellers had an opportunity to drive the pair lower below a well-tested swing area floor between 0.8318 and 0.8333, but that move ultimately failed. The quick rebound from that zone suggests buyers are still defending that support base, which has now reestablished itself as the key short-term floor.

A break above 0.8363 would shift the bias back in favor of the bulls, exposing the 0.8400–0.8420 zone and potentially the 38.2% retracement of the decline from the January 2025 high (high for the year – not shown) at 0.8483. Conversely, a confirmed break below 0.8318 would likely accelerate downside pressure toward the next support targets at 0.8273 and 0.82803

🔑 Key Levels

• Resistance:

  • 0.8363 (100/200-hour MA + trendline confluence)

  • 0.8400 (round number / swing area)

  • 0.8433 (high from May 15)

  • 0.8476 to 0.8483 (high from last week and 38.2% retracement)

• Support:

  • 0.8333–0.8318 (key floor / swing zone)

  • 0.8273-0.8280 (swing area)

  • 0.8195 to 0.8212 (swing area)

📉 Bias:

• Bearish below 0.8363, with sellers in control

• Bullish above 0.8363, break would target 0.8400+

• Downside target zone: 0.8318–0.8333, awaiting directional break

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