Commodity Radar: Gold consolidates amid an upward bias. 5 technical insights before making a trade

Gold prices fell on Monday after US President Donald Trump deferred the tariff timeline for the European Union to July 9, revoking his earlier threat of a 50% tariff from June 1. The yellow metal prices in the Indian market took cues from their offshore peers, hitting the day’s low of Rs 95,865 per 10 grams.

Around 10:20 am, the MCX June gold futures were trading at Rs 95,981, down by Rs 440 or 0.46% from the last closing price of Rs 96,421.

On the COMEX, gold contracts were trading at $3,346.60 per troy ounce, down by $19.20 or 0.57%.

The gold prices were down despite a slip in the dollar index (DXY) which was hovering around 98 against a basket of six top currencies.

Tech view

“Gold futures have entered a period of consolidation after a sharp rebound from Rs 92,400, with visible exhaustion near Rs 96,700. The price is now oscillating between Rs 95,200 and Rs 96,700, with bulls repeatedly defending the 21-EMA and bears stepping in at the upper Bollinger band zone. This suggests a tightening range as traders await fresh cues,” Jateen Trivedi, VP Research Analyst – Commodity and Currency, LKP Securities, said.

5 technical insights before making a trade:

1) Support Level is Rs 95,200 with minor trend support aligned with EMA21, while Rs 94,000 is a major swing low support. Trivedi sees the previous base of Rs 92,400 as a final support level. Below these trends will reverse, raising risk for the yellow metal.
As for the resistance levels, Rs 96,700 is the Immediate resistance ceiling based on the recent top gold made and the upper band zone. Rs 98,300 is a potential breakout trigger, while Rs 99,000 is a psychological resistance and target zone. “A sustained move above Rs 96,700 could clear the path toward Rs 98,300–Rs 99,000. On the flip side, failure to hold Rs 95,200 might expose gold to a retest of Rs 94,000, with Rs 92,400 being the next key support,” Trivedi said.
2) RSI (14): 58.96 – Mild bullish momentum

The RSI has rebounded from the 50-support level and currently rests near 59, suggesting a mild bullish bias. While the oscillator is not in overbought territory, it reflects a recovering trend. A break above Rs 96,700 could fuel further momentum toward overbought zones. On the contrary, a fall below Rs 95,200 may see the RSI dropping back toward neutral levels.

3) Bollinger Bands: Volatility compression evident

The Bollinger Bands are beginning to contract, signalling a squeeze formation. This is often a precursor to a sharp breakout or breakdown. Price is hovering between the mid and upper bands, indicating upward bias within range. A close above the upper band (~Rs 96,700) could trigger a swift rally, while a break below the mid-band (Rs 95,200) might lead to a retest of the lower band near Rs 94,000.

4) Moving Averages – EMA 10 & EMA 21: Strong dynamic support

EMA 10 (Red): Rs 95,700

EMA 21 (Yellow): Rs 95,200

Gold remains comfortably above both short-term EMAs, which continue to act as dynamic support zones. These levels serve as a line in the sand for short-term trend direction. As long as the price closes above Rs 95,200, the structure remains bullish. A breach and close below could shift the bias to bearish for the week.

5) MACD: Positive Territory but Momentum Flattening MACD continues to print in the positive zone with a reading of MACD: 1514 vs Signal: 1621, indicating that the recent bullish momentum is starting to cool off. The histogram has turned slightly negative, pointing to possible momentum fatigue. A bearish crossover would be confirmed only if gold fails to break above Rs 96,700 this week.

On the fundamentals, the LKP Securities analyst said that gold is being pulled in different directions. While hopes of tariff resolution between the Eurozone and China have temporarily reduced safe-haven demand, capping upside in international markets, the renewed tensions at the LOC between India and Pakistan have elevated geopolitical risk, particularly for MCX-traded gold due to rupee depreciation,” he said.

This divergence is keeping MCX gold premiums higher than COMEX, with localised risks offsetting mild global softness, he added

The Street will watch out for macro data from the US, including US CPI, core retail sales (April), PPI (April) and Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (May).

Moreover, Fed Chair Powell’s Speech will also be eagerly tracked.

On the domestic front rupee movement will have an impact. A stronger rupee against the dollar will dampen sentiments for the precious metal.

Trivedi said that the USDINR will continue to remain volatile in the 84.50–86.50 range.

“While the broader dollar index remains under pressure due to soft global data, localised geopolitical tensions between India and Pakistan are contributing to INR weakness. This makes MCX Gold relatively resilient even if COMEX Gold pulls back modestly. Rupee depreciation remains a key bullish tailwind for MCX prices, despite no major trend shift in international Gold,” he said.

Gold strategy: Buy-on-Dips

Gold is exhibiting a consolidative yet upward-biased setup. As long as the key zone of Rs 95,200 – Rs 95,700 is held, traders can look to accumulate long positions on dips, targeting a breakout above Rs 96,700 toward Rs 98,300 – Rs 99,000.

However, a close below Rs 95,200 would weaken the bullish bias and open downside targets of Rs 94,000 and eventually Rs 92,400. With volatility compression underway and key US data due this week, a range breakout is imminent.

Traders are advised to monitor CPI and Powell’s remarks closely for directional confirmation. Also, keep an eye on LOC developments and rupee volatility, as these can heavily skew MCX-specific movement.

(Disclaimer: Recommendations, suggestions, views and opinions given by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of Economic Times)