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US durable goods for April -6.3% versus -7.8% estimate | Forexlive

Durable goods orders

  • Prior month +7.6%
  • Durable good orders advanced -6.3% versus -7.8% expected
  • Ex transportation 0.2% versus -0.1% estimate. Last month -0.2%
  • Ex defnse for April -7.5% versus 9.0% last month
  • Non defense capital good ex air -1.3% versus -0.1%. Last month 0.3%

Durable goods orders can be volatile, especially due to large swings in aircraft orders. Stripping out transportation, core durable goods actually rose 0.2%, a stark contrast to the headline -6.3% decline. However, the key category of nondefense capital goods excluding aircraft—a closely watched proxy for business investment—showed weakness, likely reflecting growing business uncertainty tied to factors such as tariffs. This follows a 0.3% increase in the prior month.

Markets will remain focused on this segment for signals on future investment trends. Currently, traders are pricing in a 56% chance of a rate cut in September, with another cut expected by December. Still, given the mixed data and rising policy uncertainty, many Fed officials appear cautious, contributing to a shift in expectations for rate cuts further out into the year.

Below are the details of the report from the Census Department

New Orders: Fell by 6.3% to $296.3B after four months of gains;

  • Ex-transportation: Up 0.2%

  • Ex-defense: Down 7.5%

  • Transportation equipment: Dropped 17.1% to $98.8B, driving the headline decline

Unfilled Orders:

  • Rose $0.6B to $1,408.5B (virtually unchanged); up 11 of the last 12 months

  • Transportation equipment: +$1.0B (+0.1%) to $850.9B (main driver)

Inventories:

Nondefense Capital Goods:

  • New orders: Decreased $20.7B (−19.1%) to $87.3B

  • Shipments: Increased $3.0B (+3.5%) to $87.4B

  • Unfilled orders: Down $0.1B (virtually unchanged) to $815.5B

  • Inventories: Decreased $0.3B (−0.1%) to $249.2B

Defense Capital Goods:

  • New orders: Increased $3.3B (+30.5%) to $14.1B

  • Shipments: Up $0.1B (+1.0%) to $13.9B

  • Unfilled orders: Rose $0.3B (+0.1%) to $198.9B

  • Inventories: Increased $0.3B (+1.0%) to $26.6B

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