Dollar Rides Optimism Wave; RBNZ Lifts Kiwi, Aussie Ignores CPI Surprise – Action Forex

Dollar’s broad-based rebound gained further momentum in Asian session today. The turnaround in risk appetite has been key in lifting the greenback, which had come under pressure amid recent tariff tensions and soft economic signals. The rebound is also visible across asset classes, US equities have reversed losses tied to US-EU trade fears, and the 10-year yield has returned to levels seen before last week’s Treasury selloff.

This shift in tone followed US President Donald Trump’s decision to postpone the implementation of a 50% tariff on EU goods until July 9. Trump further noted overnight that the EU had reached out to set up meeting dates, describing the latest developments as “positive.”

Elsewhere, Kiwi saw a jump following RBNZ’s 25bps rate cut to 3.25%. What surprised markets was the internal division within the committee, as one member dissented and preferred no change. The minutes revealed a genuine debate on the merits of holding rates steady to better assess trade-related uncertainties and their inflationary implications. The signal was clear: while more easing is possible, the path ahead will not be automatic.

Aussie, by contrast, showed a muted response to stronger-than-expected monthly CPI data. Although core inflation edged higher, it remains comfortably within the RBA’s 2–3% target band. As such, the print is unlikely to alter RBA’s policy course. With quarterly inflation data due on July 30, the central bank is expected to wait until its August meeting to make a more informed decision on the next move, likely another 25bps cut.

In terms of performance, Dollar is currently leading for the week, followed by Sterling and then Euro. Yen is the weakest major, pressured by falling long dated Japanese government bond yields. Aussie and Swiss Franc are also lagging. Kiwi and Loonie sit in the middle of the pack.

Technically, AUD/NZD is extending the near term fall from 1.0920 today. For now, without clear downside momentum, this decline is still seen as a corrective move. Break of 1.0848 resistance will argue that rebound from 1.0649 is ready to resume through 1.0920 resistance. However, clear break of the lower channel support will argue that the cross is accelerating downward. That would raise the chance that it’s actually resume the larger down trend through 1.0649 low.

In Asia, at the time of writing, Nikkei is up 0.52%. Hong Kong HSI is down -0.43%. China Shanghai SSE is up 0.03%. Singapore Strait Times is up 0.44%. Japan 10-year JGB yield is up 0.033 at 1.499. Overnight, DOW rose 1.78%. S&P 500 rose 2.05%. NASDAQ rose 2.47%. 10-year yield fell -0.75 to 4.434.

RBNZ cuts OCR to 3.25%, one member favors holding steady

RBNZ lowered the Official Cash Rate by 25 basis points to 3.25%, in line with market expectations. The decision was not unanimous, passed by a 5-1 vote.

The central bank emphasized that inflation is now within the target band and is “well placed” to respond to both domestic and international developments.

Meeting minutes revealed that some committee members favored holding the rate steady at 3.50%, citing a desire to monitor elevated global uncertainty and potential inflation risks stemming from recent tariff increases.

Maintaining the OCR, they argued, could have helped anchor inflation expectations more firmly around the 2% midpoint.

In its accompanying Monetary Policy Statement, RBNZ revised down its rate path projections slightly. The OCR is now expected to fall to 3.12% by September 2025 (previously 3.23%), and to 2.87% by June 2026 (previously 3.10%).

Australia’s monthly CPI unchanged 2.4%, core inflation edges higher

Australia’s monthly CPI held steady at 2.4% yoy in April, slightly above expectations of 2.3% yoy, marking the third consecutive month of unchanged headline inflation.

However, underlying inflation measures moved higher, with CPI excluding volatile items and holiday travel rising to 2.8% yoy from 2.6% yoy. Trimmed mean CPI also tickd up from 2.7% yoy to 2.8% yoy.

These developments suggest that while headline inflation appears stable, price pressures beneath the surface remain persistent.

Key contributors to the annual inflation rate included food and non-alcoholic beverages (+3.1%), recreation and culture (+3.6%), and housing (+2.2%).

BoJ’s Ueda highlights focus on short- and medium-term rates

BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda told parliament today that shifts in short- and medium-term interest rates have a more pronounced impact on economic activity than movements in super-long yields.

He explained that corporate and household debt is more concentrated in those shorter maturities, making the economy more sensitive to changes in that segment of the yield curve.

However, Ueda also acknowledged the spillover effects of volatility in super-long bond yields, noting that sharp moves in that part of the curve can ripple through to shorter maturities and influence overall financial conditions.

“We’ll carefully watch market developments and their impact on the economy, he emphasized.

Fed’s Williams stresses need for vigilance on inflation expectations

New York Fed President John Williams emphasized the importance of acting decisively to prevent inflation from becoming entrenched, warning that delayed responses risk making price pressures permanent.

Speaking at a conference in Tokyo, Williams noted, “you want to avoid inflation becoming highly persistent because that could become permanent”.

“And the way to do that is to respond relatively strongly” when inflation begins to deviate from target.

He also highlighted the sensitivity of inflation expectations, cautioning that any significant shift could be “detrimental” to economic stability.

USD/JPY Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 142.83; (P) 143.64; (R1) 145.17; More…

USD/JPY’s break of 144.31 resistance suggests that fall from 148.64 might have completed as a correction at 142.10. Intraday bias is back on the upside for 55 D EMA (now at 145.83). Sustained break there will affirm this case and target 148.64 resistance and above. Nevertheless, break of 142.10 will turn bias back to the downside for 139.87 low instead.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 161.94 are seen as a corrective pattern to rise from 102.58 (2021 low), with fall from 158.86 as the third leg. Strong support should be seen from 38.2% retracement of 102.58 to 161.94 at 139.26 to bring rebound. However, sustained break of 139.26 would open up deeper medium term decline to 61.8% retracement at 125.25.