Commodity Radar: Gold faces caution ahead of Fed meet, but bullish trend intact. Key entry levels to watch

Gold traded with a negative bias in Tuesday’s early trade as the traders were cautious ahead of the two-day Federal Open Market Committee Meeting (FOMC), which begins today. The domestic prices mirrored international trends, with some profit booking seen after a strong rally that pushed the yellow metal above the Rs 1 lakh mark on the MCX.

Around 9:30 am, the August gold futures were trading at Rs 98,869, falling Rs 309 or 0.31%. Meanwhile, prices on the COMEX were hovering around $3,402.90 per troy ounce, down $14.40, or 0.42%.

The dollar index (DXY) was trading above 98, up 0.13% against a basket of six major currencies. As the movement on DXY is typically inverse to the gold price , a 1% drop gave a fresh momentum to the metal.

Geopolitics and tariffs will continue to fuel the uptrend, according to Jateen Trivedi, Vice President – Commodity Research at LKP Securities, and gold’s haven appeal will likely take a northward trajectory amid growing tensions between Israel and Iran. Moreover, the tariffs remain a big conundrum as we are weeks behind the July deadline.

The economic data from the US and India will remain the catalyst. The Street will be watching the developments around the Federal Reserve’s FOMC meeting, which begins today. The Central Bank will announce its policy decisions on Wednesday. “Any dovish or hawkish surprises can swing gold decisively,” Jateen Trivedi added.

Moreover, India’s WPI Inflation (MoM) adds to domestic sentiment and price correlation with INR.Trivedi said that the rupee weakness, driven by geopolitical uncertainty, is keeping portfolios cautious and he believes that INR could further depreciate, triggering capital outflows and adding to domestic gold demand as a hedge.

Tech view: 5 things investors should track

1) Key Support & Resistance: Gold continues its ascent, recently reaching Rs 1,01,078 with a close near Rs 1,00,305. The recent break above Rs 98,900–Rs 99,000 confirms bullish intent.

Support Levels:
— Rs 99,000 – prior resistance turned near-term support
— Rs 97,000 – secondary support aligning with the 21 EMA
— Rs 93,200 – long-term base, unlikely to be tested unless there’s a steep correction

Resistance Levels:
— Rs 1,01,300–Rs 1,01,500 – upper zone poised as target
— Rs 1,02,500 – near convergence of upper Bollinger band and historical highs

A sustained run above Rs 1,01,500 could pave the way towards Rs 1,02,500+, while a dip below Rs 99,000 would signal short-term weakness.

2) RSI (14) at 65.53 – bullish momentum with room to run

RSI reads 65.5, comfortably below overbought territory, reflecting strong upward momentum but keeping further upside possible before fatigue sets in.

3) Bollinger bands: Gold is riding near the upper Bollinger band, indicating a strong uptrend. With band width expanding, this suggests continuation of the bullish impulse rather than an imminent reversal.

4. Moving averages: EMA 8 & EMA 21 show a steady bullish structure

— EMA 8 (red): Rs 99,500
— EMA 21 (yellow): Rs 98,600

The price remains well above both EMAs, underscoring a solid upward trend. The current positioning reinforces a buy-on-dips bias.

5) MACD: Although the MACD isn’t displayed in the chart, prior readings indicated a strong bullish crossover. With the recent rally and rising momentum, the MACD remains firmly above the signal line, supporting further price gains.

Trading strategy : Gold Price Prediction

Buy the dips near Rs 99,000. Gold remains bullish as long as the Rs 99,000–Rs 99,500 zone holds.

— Entry strategy: Buy on dips around Rs 99,000–Rs 99,500
— Stop Loss: Rs 97,000 on closing basis
— Targets: Rs 1,01,500–Rs 1,02,500
— Next target: Rs 1,03,500 if geopolitical tensions persist

The price of 10 gram of Gold (999 purity) in the physical markets is Rs 98,810 according to Indian Bullion & Jewellery Association (IBJA). It has a 3% GST on top of the price.

(Disclaimer: Recommendations, suggestions, views and opinions given by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of Economic Times)