Commodity Radar: Gold tumbles Rs 1,700/10 grams; 5 key indicators support ‘sell on rise’ call

Gold fell sharply on Tuesday following US President Donald Trump’s announcement of a ceasefire agreement between Israel and Iran. Domestic prices declined in line with international trends.

August MCX gold contracts fell by Rs 1,700 or 1.7%, while COMEX gold contracts hovered near $3,347.80 per troy ounce, down by $47.20 or 1.39%.

“Notwithstanding the current profit booking, geopolitics and tariffs keep the risk premium elevated, and gold remains supported by the Israel-Iran escalation and U.S. tariff uncertainty,” said Jateen Trivedi, Vice President and Research Analyst – Commodity and Currency, LKP Securities.

However, optimism stemming from US economic stability and potential progress in tariff talks with the EU and China keeps upward pressure in check. While safe-haven demand persists, it is not aggressive, Trivedi added.

Tech view

1) Key support & resistance

Resistance levels

— Immediate supply zone: Rs 99,250–Rs 99,300
— Strong resistance and SL reference for bearish setup: 1,01,000

Support Levels:

— Near-term support: Rs 98,000

— EMA cluster and key mid-term base: Rs 96,500

— Trend-defining level: Rs 95,000

Failure to hold above Rs 98,000 can trigger deeper pullback toward Rs 96,500. Unless Rs 99,300 is broken decisively, a ‘Sell on Rise’ strategy looks favorable.

2) RSI (14): 58.54 – Sluggish Momentum

RSI at 58.5 signals mild bullishness but with weakening momentum. The indicator failed to retest the overbought zone and has flattened, which implies a likely pause or retracement phase.

3) Narrowing bollinger bands

Suggests range formation gold remains inside the upper half of the Bollinger band but is now drifting sideways. The bands are converging, indicating lower volatility and probable consolidation or reversal unless a breakout occurs.

4) Moving averages: EMA 8 & EMA 21 show bearish convergence risk

— EMA 8 (Red): RS 98,900

— EMA 21 (Yellow): Rs 96,500

Price is hovering above both EMAs but has started showing loss of momentum. A close below Rs 98,800 could initiate short-term pressure toward Rs 97,500–Rs 96,500 zone.

5) MACD: Not displayed, but previous histogram weakness

Based on recent histogram behavior, MACD has shown flattening with declining bullish momentum. No fresh bullish crossover supports the ‘sell on rise’ view near resistance.

Rupee factor – bias weak

The rupee remains vulnerable due to FII uncertainty driven by global tension and domestic political concerns. Weak rupee supports MCX gold prices even when COMEX remains steady, Trivedi said.

Gold trading strategy

Sell on rise near Rs 99,000–Rs 99,250

Stop-Loss: Rs 1,01,000 on a closing basis

Target Zones:

— Target 1: Rs 98,000

— Target 2: Rs 96,500

— Extended Target: Rs 95,000 if global tensions ease and US data comes in strong.

(Disclaimer: Recommendations, suggestions, views and opinions given by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of the Economic Times)