Reminder: There is AI and everything else is noise. What’s coming | Forexlive

At some level, the micro focus on Trump’s tweets or when the Federal Reserve will cut rates is a laughable distraction. None of it will matter in five years.

The only projection that matters is how artificial intelligence will affect the economy. It’s multi-faceted with every gain in productivity or investment potentially disrupted by unemployment and resulting political dissatisfaction.

I can see a world of abundance but I can also see turmoil.

Anthropic’s Dario Amodei’s said that “half of entry-level white-collar jobs will disappear within 1 to 5 years,” and Sam Altman was asked about that this week and was awkwardly silent followed by OpenAI COO Brad Lightcap jumping in.

It’s eminently in the interest of AI accelerators and investors to downplay the social costs, so don’t expect any straight answers but the best Lighthouse could come up with is “there is no evidence of that”.

How is this for evidence: The unemployment rate of Harvard’s 2024 MBA graduating class of is ~25%, the highest on record. The number was 20% in 2023 and 10% in 2022. It’s the same elsewhere. Those are the best-of-the-best… what about the rest?

You also don’t have to look hard to see what’s happening to youth unemployment; it’s risen over the past two years in every major economy except Italy.