Commodity Radar: Sell gold at Rs 93,000 as more cracks seen after Rs 5,600 fall from peak
Gold’s once-dazzling rally is losing steam, with the yellow metal slipping nearly Rs 5,600 or 6% from its peak of Rs 1,01,078 per 10 grams, as it breaches key support levels. The easing Israel-Iran tensions, a strengthening rupee, and hawkish cues from US economic data have stripped gold of its geopolitical premium, triggering a sell-on-rise strategy, says Jateen Trivedi of LKP Securities.
Charts are flashing red with bearish signals, and a likely fall to the target of Rs 93,000 is expected if dollar strengthens or heavy US data surprises emerge.
Gold traded in a narrow range in Monday’s opening trade amid a lack of triggers, taking cues from the flat international prices. The MCX August gold futures were trading at Rs 95,500, marginally up by Rs 30 or 0.03%. On the COMEX, the gold rate was hovering near $3,290.30 per troy ounce, up by $2.70 or 0.08%.
Global risk events remain mixed and gold is currently holding a modest geopolitical premium due to unresolved tensions between Israel and Iran, along with continued global trade tariff uncertainties, Trivedi said.
Dollar movement and key US economic data, including manufacturing PMI, non-farm payrolls & unemployment rate, and the Fed’s interest rate guidance, will impact the yellow metal price movement.
The dollar index (DXY) is currently hovering near the 97 mark against a basket of six major currencies. It has declined 1.5% over the past five trading sessions, extending its losses to over 10% this year, so far. Among the domestic factors, the rupee’s strength will create pressure for MCX gold futures, Trivedi said, highlighting currency’s gain due to easing geopolitical tension and stable crude prices.Tech view1) Key support & resistance
Gold broke below short-term support and is now in a corrective phase after failing to sustain above Rs 98,000.
Resistance Zones:
— Immediate resistance/sell zone: Rs 96,000–Rs 96,250
— Trend reversal zone (SL zone): Rs 98,200
Support Zones:
— Short-term support: Rs 94,750
— Strong swing support: Rs 93,800
— Breakdown support level: Rs 92,500
Sellers are likely to defend Rs 96,250 unless there is a surprise trigger from global cues.
2) RSI (14): Weakening Momentum with RSI at 40.91
RSI has slipped closer to the oversold threshold and stands at 40.91, reflecting strong bearish momentum building. Unless RSI reverses above 50, expect continued downward bias.
3) Bollinger Bands: Breakdown from mid-band
Price has moved decisively below the mid-band, and the lower band (Rs 94,800) is now the next downside marker. Bands are expanding again, indicating a rise in volatility that supports a further downward move lower unless quickly reversed.
4) EMA 8 & EMA 21 shows bearish crossover is confirmed
— EMA 8 (Red): Rs 96,400
— EMA 21 (Yellow): Rs 97,200
The price is firmly below both EMAs, with EMA 8 crossing below EMA 21 — a classic short-term bearish crossover. This signals a sell-on-rise structure until EMAs flip again. A bearish lower-high formation is visible with the price trading below both EMA 8 & EMA 21.
5) MACD shows a likely bearish momentum
Although not displayed in the image, the last seen MACD histogram and signal line slope were weakening, hinting that a negative crossover may already be in play or imminent. This supports a bearish near-term tone.
Gold trading strategy
–Sell on rise strategy near Rs 96,250 for targets of Rs 94,750/Rs 93,800/Rs 93,000 on heavy US data or dollar strength.
— Sell Zone: Rs 96,000–Rs 96,250
— Stop-Loss: Rs 98,200 (Closing Basis)
(Disclaimer: Recommendations, suggestions, views and opinions given by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of Economic Times)