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Gold Price Prediction: Yellow metal at 1-month low, but downside looks cushioned. Analysts weigh in

MCX Gold August futures opened flat on Monday at Rs 95,529 per 10 grams, up Rs 59 (0.06%), following a sharp correction driven by easing geopolitical tensions and global market optimism.

The yellow metal prices fell to their month-low as easing trade tensions between the US and China also dampened safe-haven demand and prompted investors to pivot towards riskier assets.

Meanwhile, US President Trump abruptly ended trade talks with Canada over its tax targeting US technology firms, saying that it was a “blatant attack” and that he would set a new tariff rate on Canadian goods within the next week.

President Trump, once again taking a dig at Governor Powell, said that he would not appoint anyone to head the US Federal Reserve who would not lower interest rates. Meanwhile, Senate Republicans pushed forward President Trump’s sweeping tax cut and spending bill over the weekend in a marathon weekend session.

On Friday, gold and silver settled on a weak note in the domestic and international markets. Gold August futures contract settled at Rs 95,470 per 10 grams with a loss of 1.67% and silver September futures contract settled at Rs 1,06,397 per kilogram with a loss of 1.39%.

Gold and silver pulled back from the recent highs after the de-escalation of the in Israel-Iran war and gains in global equity markets. Ceasefire between Israel and Iran eased the war premium of precious metals. Gold prices slipped to 1-month lows, and silver prices also plunged.The U.S. core PCE price index data released last week also came up at 0.2% against the expected reading of 0.1%. The U.S. personal income and personal spending also contracted due to an increase in the headline inflation and higher U.S. trade tariffs. “Delay in the U.S. Fed rate cuts also pushed gold and silver prices lower. However, weakness in the dollar index and escalation in the Russia-Ukraine war is supporting prices at lower levels,” said Manoj Kumar Jain of Prithvifinmart Commodity Research.

“We expect gold and silver prices to remain volatile this week amid volatility in the dollar index and geopolitical tensions, but gold prices could hold their support level of $3,200 per troy ounce and silver prices could also hold $35.00 per troy ounce levels on a weekly closing basis,” he added.

However, Rahul Kalantri, VP Commodities at Mehta Equities, believes that the downside for precious metals is cushioned by the dollar weakness and rising tensions in the Russia-Ukraine region.

Today, the US Dollar Index, DXY, was hovering near the 97.25 mark, falling 0.15 or 0.15%.

How to trade gold?

Manoj Kumar Jain suggested the following ranges for gold and silver on MCX:

  • Gold has support at Rs 95,100-94,770 and resistance at Rs 95,800-96,180
  • Silver has support at Rs 1,05,550-1,04,800 and resistance at Rs 1,07,200-1,08,000

Jain noted that gold is trading near its make-or-break level of $3,284 and Rs 95,000. If these support levels are held on a closing basis, then some short coverings are expected towards $3,355 and Rs 96,400 once again.

Rahul Kalantari noted that on MCX, gold has support at Rs 95,100-94,780 while resistance is at Rs 95,940-96,450.

“Silver has support at Rs 1,05,980-1,04,900 while resistance is at Rs 1,07.450-1,07,900,” he added.

Gold rates in physical markets

Gold Price today in Delhi

Standard gold (22 carat) prices in Delhi stand at Rs 57,816/8 grams while pure gold (24 carat) prices stand at Rs 61,632/8 grams.

Gold Price today in Mumbai

Standard gold (22 carat) prices in Mumbai stand at Rs 57,888/8 grams while pure gold (24 carat) prices stand at Rs 61,776/8 grams.

Gold Price today in Chennai

Standard gold (22 carat) prices in Chennai stand at Rs 56,648/8 grams while pure gold (24 carat) prices stand at Rs 60,384/8 grams.

Gold Price today in Hyderabad

Standard gold (22 carat) prices in Hyderabad stand at Rs 57,160/8 grams while pure gold (24 carat) prices stand at Rs 60,880/8 grams.

(Disclaimer: Recommendations, suggestions, views and opinions given by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of The Economic Times)