Buyers remain in full control in the EURUSD. What would weaken that bias? | Forexlive

Since May 12, the EURUSD has been steadily trending higher, rising from a low of 1.1065 to a high of 1.18266 this week—a gain of 761 pips over 37 trading days, or 6.88%. The rally has been supported by solid upside momentum and broad-based dollar weakness..

On a year-to-date basis, the EURUSD is up an impressive 13.78%, after closing 2024 at 1.0354. The rise has been fueled by sustained dollar selling in 2025, driven by mounting concerns over U.S. debt levels and a reallocation of global capital. This strength has come even as eurozone rates have moved lower, highlighting the dominance of dollar-specific flows and bullish technical breaks through resistance.

Technically, the pair has remained above its 100-hour moving average since June 23, reinforcing the bullish tone. That moving average—currently at 1.17487 (see blue line on the chart above)—was tested earlier today, but buyers held the line and pushed the pair back up to 1.1781. The ability to stay above that support level continues to validate the buyers’ control.

Going forward, the 100-hour moving average remains a key short-term support level. A sustained break below it would be needed to shift the bias toward the sellers. Until then, the path of least resistance remains to the upside. The next key upside targets come in at today’s high of 1.1808 and yesterday’s high of 1.18266. A break above those levels opens the door toward the next major target at 1.1909, a level not seen since July and September of 2021.

The dollar selling can be a tailwind for US companies selling abroad, but a headwind for European companies selling in the US.

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