Commodity Radar: Gold glitters with 27% YTD surge in 2025: 5 key indicators to watch next

Gold’s prices have stayed strong and are hovering near the Rs 1 lakh mark in the domestic physical markets (3% GST). In this year so far, the gains have been to the tune of 27%, better than any other asset class. On a month-to-date basis, the gains are nearly 2%.

“Gold’s strength is fueled by the renewed tariff escalation by the US against key trading partners, including Brazil, the EU, Mexico, and Canada, reviving fears of disrupted global trade. Uncertainty over global growth and trade stability has reignited demand for safe havens,” Jateen Trivedi, Vice President, Research Analyst – Commodity and Currency at LKP Securities, said. He said that the tariff unpredictability has pushed investors to hedge via precious metals and a rising inflationary outlook due to tariff-led price surges may support gold further.

Among domestic factors, rupee movement against the US dollar will hold the key.

“The rupee has remained volatile due to uncertainty around India-US trade relations and overall global tariff impact. Fluctuations in USDINR are adding a mild premium to MCX Gold,” he added.

1) Key support & resistance

Gold has shown a constructive structure after bouncing from the Rs 96,000 – Rs 96,200 support zone. The price has managed to sustain above Rs 97,500 this week and is attempting a move past the consolidation band.

Support Zone:

— Near-term support: Rs 97,200 – Rs 97,500
— Strong base support: Rs 96,000 on closing basis

Resistance Zone:

— Immediate resistance: Rs 98,400
— Breakout zone: Rs 99,300 – Rs 99,500
— Next trend extension target: Rs 101,000
A close above ₹98,400 will likely trigger bullish continuation toward ₹99,500+. Breakdown below Rs 96,000 (closing basis) will negate this bullish bias.

2. RSI (14) Neutral to Bullish Bias at 53.91

RSI has recovered above 50, suggesting a shift in momentum. A sustained move above 55 will confirm bullish intent. The current level indicates buyers are gradually regaining control, with upside potential remaining.

3. Bollinger Bands: Squeeze indicates upcoming expansion

Bands are narrow, indicating a volatility squeeze – a classic sign of an upcoming directional move. Price is currently riding the mid-band and nudging higher, hinting toward a potential breakout if Rs 98,400 is crossed.

4. Moving Averages: Flattish but price holding above

–EMA 8 (Red): Rs 97,800
— EMA 21 (Yellow): Rs 97,600

Gold is now trading above both short-term EMAs, which are acting as dynamic support zones. A clean close above these averages sustains the buy-on-dips strategy. Flattening EMAs reflect ongoing consolidation, but bias remains upward.

5. MACD: Building Momentum

While the MACD lines are converging, the histogram has shown early signs of reversal from bearish to neutral. A bullish crossover in the coming sessions will confirm further price strength.

Gold trading strategy

Buy-on-Dips | Buy Zone: Rs 96,500 – Rs 96,800 | Stop Loss: Rs 95,400

Targets:
Target 1: Rs 97,800
Target 2: Rs 98,500
Target 3: Rs 99,500 (in case of breakout)

(Disclaimer: Recommendations, suggestions, views and opinions given by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of Economic Times)