US CPI will kickstart the US trading day. The USD is mostly lower to start the day | Forexlive
The US CPI data will be released today with the expectation of 0.3% for the headline and the 0.3% for the core MoM. THe YoY for the headline is expected at 2.6% from 2.4% last month, with the core expected at 3.0% vs 2.8%.
Treasury Sec Bessent was on Bloomberg TV and said that he urged caution in reacting to a single inflation report, stressing the importance of observing broader trends rather than overemphasizing one data point. He noted he hadn’t yet seen the latest CPI figures but reiterated that inflation does not appear to be accelerating.
On monetary policy, Bessent underscored the value of an independent central bank and acknowledged past forecasting errors by the Fed, suggesting another may be unfolding. He confirmed that the formal process to choose a successor to Fed Chair Jerome Powell is underway, emphasizing that the decision will proceed at President Trump’s own pace, with many qualified candidates both within and outside the Fed.
On international matters, Bessent said the U.S. is in a “good place” with China and expects to meet with his Chinese counterpart in the coming weeks, while stressing he will not rush any deals to meet market-driven timelines.
Although senior officials like himself get early access to key data, Bessent avoided commenting on specifics ahead of the CPI release, leading to speculation—though past examples suggest such signals should be interpreted with caution. We will see.
The USD is little changed with declines mostly with the exception of the USD vs the JPY. Nevertheless, the changes on the day are relatively modest with the USD changes showing:
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JPY: +0.15%
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GBP: -0.10%
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EUR: -0.06%
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CHF: -0.11%
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CAD: -0.11%
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NZD: -0.33%
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AUD: -0.26%
In the video above, I take a look at the 3 major currency pairs, the EURUSD, USDJPY and GBPUSD from a technical perspective and outline the bias, the key target and risk defining levels. Be aware and prepared ahead of the key release.
Earnings season is kicking off with the release of some of the big bank and investment back earnings. They have come out much better than expectations, helping to lift shares in premarket trading ahead of the CPI:
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Citigroup (C) Q2 2025: EPS $1.96 (BEAT; exp. $1.60), Revenue $21.67B (BEAT; exp. $20.98B)
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Wells Fargo (WFC) Q2 2025: EPS $1.60 (BEAT; exp. $1.41), Revenue $20.822B (BEAT; exp. $20.72B)
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JPMorgan Chase (JPM) Q2 2025: Adj. EPS $4.96 (BEAT; exp. $4.47), Revenue $44.91B (BEAT; exp. $44.22B)
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BlackRock (BLK) Q2 2025: Adj. EPS $12.05 (BEAT; exp. $10.81), Revenue $5.42B (MISS; exp. $5.46B)
The broader indices are higher:
- NASDAQ index up 145 points
- S&P index up 27.69 points
The Dow industrial average is still marginally lower with a decline of -34.65 points.
US yields are mixed ahead of the CPI data:
- 2-year 3.927%, +2.9 basis points
- 5-year yield 3.999%, +1.8 basis points
- 10 year yield 4.429%, +0.2 basis points
- 30 year yield 4.962%, -1.0 basis points
Looking at other data:
- Crude oil is $-0.10 at $66.89
- Gold is up $10.28 or 0.31% at $3352.03
- Bitcoin is at $117,075 down $-2860
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