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Forexlive Americas FX news wrap 18 Jul:The USD closes higher vs major currencies this week | Forexlive

U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said a trade deal with Japan remains in the “realm of possibility,” but emphasized that securing a good deal is more important than rushing one. He indicated that negotiations are ongoing and that the outcome of Japan’s upcoming election could be pivotal to reaching an agreement. Hope springs eternal, but Japan was insulted by the tariff letter.

Also on tariffs, the Financial Times reported that President Trump is pushing for a 15–20% minimum tariff on all EU goods, down from the previously floated 30% in “the letter.” He also refuses to reduce the existing 25% tariff on EU cars and is considering a reciprocal tariff exceeding 10%, even if a deal is reached. Trump has rejected a zero-tariff framework, insisting that access to the U.S. market should carry a baseline tax, effectively between 10% and 20%, while keeping U.S. exports tariff-free. The EURUSD moved lower on the headlines, and the EU trade commissioner reportedly gave a downbeat readout of recent Washington talks.

What we can say is the markets are becoming comfortable (the Nasdaq and S&P traded at new records), but with August 1st approaching, the rubber will meet the road soon and the impact on inflation, stocks, bonds and FX could heat up.

The USD is closing next/mostly lower. Looking at the greenback’s change versus the major currencies:

  • EUR -0.26%
  • JPY +0.09%
  • GBP +0.06%
  • CHF -0.41%
  • CAD -0.16%
  • AUD -0.31%
  • NZD -0.49%

For the trading week, despite the decline versus most currencies today, the USD was higher vs all the major currencies as concerns about lower growth overseas and higher inflation supported the greenback:

  • EUR +0.52%
  • JPY +0.915
  • GBP +0.55%
  • CHF +0.66%
  • CAD +0.33%
  • AUD +1.00%
  • NZD +0.71%

The Fed will go into quiet mode over the next week and a half until the rate decision on July 30. Today, Fed’s Goolsbee and Waller spoke. Waller was quite emphatic on Thursday evening sayinng he still supports a 25bps rate cut in July, citing rising downside risks and weakening labor market conditions. He stressed that the Fed should not wait for job losses to act, warning that delayed easing could require more aggressive cuts later. Waller sees GDP growth near 1% and believes policy should move closer to neutral.

He noted that private hiring is near stall speed, and the labor market is “on the edge.” While tariffs may raise inflation 0.75–1% in the short term, he views them as a temporary shock, with core inflation close to 2% absent the tariff effects. A July cut would give the Fed space to pause for a few meetings, he said.

Waller also said there’s uncertainty around the neutral Fed funds rate, and 3% may still reflect loose conditions. He confirmed no contact with the Trump team about a potential Fed Chair role. On QT, he sees limited interest in selling MBS and expects the balance sheet runoff to remain slow. He also said stablecoins are not a threat but introduce useful competition in payments. Lastly, he emphasized that data should guide the pace of future cuts, and there’s “nothing wrong with an insurance cut.”

Fed’s Goolsbee sounded like he might want to cut but was dissuaded by the uncertainty on inflation from tariffs. Goolsbee expressed caution ahead of the Fed’s blackout period, noting that the latest CPI data shows tariffs are pushing up goods inflation. He emphasized the need for clarity on the scope and timeline of tariffs, warning that the current “drip-drip” rollout prevents treating them as a one-time price shock. Goolsbee also stated that uncertainty around inflation and trade policy could delay rate cuts, though he acknowledged that it’s realistic for rates to move lower over the next year if conditions stabilize. He added that more months of consistent inflation data would make him more confident in cutting rates and voiced concern over challenges to central bank independence.

Looking at the US debt market, yields are closing mixed for the week with the threat that Chairman Powell would be fired causing volatility and a shift higher in the yield curve. The 2-year yield is closing the week down -2.2 basis points, while the 30 year bond is closing the week six basis points.

Looking at the closing levels:

  • 2-year yield 3.871%, -4.6 basis points. For the week yields are down -2.2 basis points after being up as much as 7 basis points.
  • 5-year yield 3.948, -5.8 basis points. For the week, yields are down -3.2 basis points after being up as much as 7.4 basis points.
  • 10-year yield 4.419%, -4.3 basis points. For the week, the yield is up 0.3 basis points after being up as high as 7.8 basis points.
  • 30-year yield 4.990%, -2.3 basis points. For the week, yield is up 3.6 basis points after being up as much as 12.1 basis points

Next week will be a key week for earnings with Tesla and Alphabet, leading the releases. Below is a list of the major releases before and after market close:

  • Monday 7/21 – Before Open: Verizon (VZ), Domino’s Pizza (DPZ),

  • Monday 7/21 – After Close: NXP Semiconductors (NXPI)

  • Tuesday 7/22 – Before Open: Lockheed Martin (LMT), Coca‑Cola (KO), Philip Morris (PM), General Motors (GM), D.R. Horton (DHI), Northrop Grumman

  • Tuesday 7/22 – After Close: Texas Instruments (TXN), SAP (SE), Intuitive Surgical (ISRG), Capital One (COF)

  • Wednesday 7/23 – Before Open: AT&T (T), GE Vernova (GEV), Freeport‑McMoRan (FCX), AT&T, General Dynamics

  • Wednesday 7/23 – After Close: Tesla (TSLA), Alphabet (GOOGL), ServiceNow (NOW), IBM (IBM), Chipotle (CMG)

  • Thursday 7/24 – Before Open: American Airlines (AAL), Nokia (NOK), Dow (DOW), Southwest (LUV), Honeywell (HON)

  • Thursday 7/24 – After Close: Intel (INTC)

  • Friday 7/25 – Before Open: Centene (CNC)

On the economic calendar, the ECB rate decision will be the highlight. The central bank is expected to keep rates unchanged. Other than that, regional flash PMI indices will be released.

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