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Gold Futures Technical Analysis and Price Prediction Before Today’s FOMC Press Conference | investingLive

At the time of this analysis, gold futures (December 2025 contract) are trading at $3,384.6, showing a 1.89% gain versus yesterday’s close. However, this gain is driven largely by the contract rollover from August to December, a scheduled shift that can create pricing jumps unrelated to active buying or selling. (More on this below.)

tradeCompass Summary for Today

  • Bullish above: $3,383

  • Bearish below: $3,380

  • Current price: $3,384.6

  • Directional bias: Bullish unless the $3,380 threshold is breached (and if you go Long, your stop can not be much lower than there…)

  • Partial Profit Targets:

    If Bullish Scenario Activated:

    • $3,391.8 — Pre-liquidity zone before 2-day-old POC

    • $3,391.8 — Pre-liquidity zone before 2-day-old POC

    • $3,397.6 — Just below July 25 POC and under $3,400

    • $3,406.6 — Below July 25 Value Area High

    If Bearish Scenario Activated:

    • $3,378.4 — Above today’s 3rd lower VWAP deviation

    • $3,378.4 — Just below today’s Value Areah High

    • $3,371.3 — Just above yesterday’s Point of Control

    • $3,365.8 — Above yesterday’s 2nd lower VWAP deviation

    • $3,351 — Above July 9th Value Area Low (extended target)

Today’s Gold Market Setup and Directional Outlook

The bullish threshold is $3,383, which we’ve selected due to its proximity to a key liquidity pool observed in today’s trading session. While it’s slightly below today’s VWAP at $3,383.5, it remains a meaningful level for initiating long trades in line with tradeCompass.

The point of control (POC) for today is still sitting around $3,385, and the bearish threshold remains set at $3,380. We are currently above both thresholds, and therefore in bullish territory.

Traders seeking tighter entries may look toward the VWAP zone ($3,383.5) or just under it, as long as price stays firm above the bearish threshold.

Bullish Partial-Profit Targets (If Price Holds Above $3,383)

  • $3,386.7

    Near the current session’s VAH (value area high). Good for very early risk reduction.

    $3,391.8

    Near-term liquidity zone just beneath 2-day-old POC at $3,394. Also legit for for fairly early risk reduction.

  • $3,397.6

    Located below the July 25 POC and under the critical $3,400 round number. When reached, move stop to entry per tradeCompass methodology.

  • $3,406.6

    Sits just below July 25 Value Area High—often a spot where prior rallies have stalled.

Bearish Partial-Profit Targets (If Price Breaks Below $3,380)

If the bearish threshold is broken and confirmed with sustained action:

  • $3,378.4

    Above today’s 3rd lower VWAP deviation—a potential liquidity reaction area.

  • $3,376.1

    Just above yesterday’s VWAP, often a zone where aggressive positioning shifts.

  • $3,371.3

    Just above yesterday’s point of control (POC), where volume memory may kick in.

  • $3,365.8

    Above yesterday’s 2nd lower VWAP deviation—likely to trigger covering or dip buys.

  • $3,351

    Extended target near the July 9 Value Area Low. Stronger move, possibly a swing play.

Gold Swing Trader Watchlist: Critical Reversal Zone

Watch the $3,346.5–$3,346.8 zone closely. While not a target today, if gold flushes into it and reverses upward, that may offer a high-quality swing long. Price flipping this zone could trap late shorts and signal renewed upward momentum.

Educational Insight: Liquidity Pools, VWAP Deviations, and POC

  • Liquidity pools are price levels where a concentration of orders sits—often leading to pauses, reversals, or accelerations. The bullish threshold today at $3,383 reflects such a zone.

  • VWAP deviations help traders detect stretches from fair value. Moves into the 2nd or 3rd deviation bands often trigger reactions.

  • The Point of Control (POC) marks the session’s most traded price. It’s a prime magnet for price and often aligns with directional shifts.

tradeCompass Gold Trade Management Principles

  • Only one trade per direction per session.

  • Move stop to entry after the second partial profit.

  • Do not place stops beyond the opposing threshold.

  • Use tradeCompass as a map, not a signal service. Entry confirmation and risk management remain your responsibility. For real-time trade ideas, join our Telegram group.

Benefits of This Forecast for Gold Futures Traders

  • Helps separate rollover noise from actual directional conviction.

  • Anchored to real-time VWAP and POC, not arbitrary price zones.

  • Offers flexible levels for scalpers, day traders, and swing setups.

  • Highlights bullish and bearish game plans, so you’re ready either way.

What Is Contract Rollover in Futures?

Contract rollover happens when traders switch from one futures contract to the next (e.g., August to December) before expiry. It causes a price shift due to calendar adjustments, not due to new market orders. I wrote a little bit about why the world needs contract rollovers back before we at investingLive.com rebranded from ForexLive.com

Final Reminder

This tradeCompass forecast provides a strategic compass, not trade advice. Futures trading is high risk and should always be executed with proper discipline. Read the map, manage your entries, and take profit methodically.

Let me know if you’d like this turned into a visual or quickBytes update.