What is the distribution of forecasts for the US NFP? | investingLive

The ranges of estimates are
important in terms of market reaction because when the actual data deviates from the
expectations, it creates a surprise effect. Another
important input in market’s reaction is the distribution of forecasts.

In fact, although we can have a range of
estimates, most forecasts might be clustered on the upper bound of the
range, so even if the data comes out inside the range of estimates but
on the lower bound of the range, it can still create a surprise effect.

Non-Farm Payrolls

• 0K-176K range of estimates
• 75K-130K range most clustered
• 110K consensus

Unemployment Rate

• 4.3% (1%)
• 4.2% (83%) – consensus
• 4.1% (15%)
• 4.0% (1%)

Average Hourly Earnings Y/Y

• 3.9% (3%)
• 3.8% (69%) – consensus
• 3.7% (25%)
• 3.4% (3%)

Average Hourly Earnings M/M

• 0.4% (2%)
• 0.3% (75%) – consensus
• 0.2% (23%)

Average Weekly Hours

• 34.3 (38%)
• 34.2 (62%) – consensus

Fed Chair Powell mentioned that they focus on the unemployment rate, so that’s going to be the most important metric to watch. I feel like the market is already positioned for a good report so a weak one is likely to trigger bigger moves.