More on Goldman Sachs Brent crude oil forecasts, as low as US$56 | investingLive

Goldman Sachs has maintained its Brent crude price forecasts, expecting an average of $64 per barrel in Q4 2025 and $56 in 2026. However, the bank warned that downside risks to oil demand are increasing, driven by rising U.S. tariffs, the threat of further trade measures, and weaker-than-expected economic data in the United States.

According to Goldman, signs of below-trend U.S. economic growth have raised the probability of a recession within the next year, which could undermine its base case for global oil demand to grow by 800,000 barrels per day annually in 2025 and 2026.

On the supply side, Goldman noted that geopolitical pressure on sanctioned oil from Russia and Iran could support higher prices, particularly as global spare production capacity normalises faster than anticipated. However, the bank sees limited risk of major supply disruptions from Russia, citing continued demand from China and India, despite recent reports that Indian refiners have paused purchases due to narrowing discounts and pressure from the U.S.

OPEC+ agreed on Sunday to increase output by 547,000 barrels per day in September, aiming to reclaim lost market share. Goldman expects the group to hold production steady beyond September as stockpiles in OECD countries rise and seasonal demand eases.