investingLive Americas FX news wrap 18 Aug: Zelenskyy/EU leaders meet with Trump | investingLive

The geopolitical spotlight was on Washington today as Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and a number of EU leaders arrived in at the White House to review the Russia–Ukraine war in the wake of last Friday’s Putin–Trump meeting. Attention shifted toward the European side, where leaders are pressing for U.S. security guarantees. Reports suggest Putin is demanding retention of seized territory and is unlikely to accept firm U.S. guarantees. The Trump administration has signaled that Europe will shoulder most of the defense burden—with the U.S. providing limited assurances and offering to supply defense equipment. The scope of U.S. support, however, remains uncertain.

Hopes for a trilateral summit involving the U.S., EU, and Russia remain on the table, but there is no guarantee it will materialize. Likewise, expectations for a cease-fire are muted until a broader agreement is reached.

On the economic front, the U.S. calendar was light with only the NAHB Housing Market Index released. The index slipped to 32 from 34, tying the third-lowest reading since 2012—levels only seen in April 2020 and December 2022. The decline reflects elevated mortgage rates, weak home-buyer traffic, and supply-side pressures. While U.S. rates have eased modestly over the past week, mortgage costs remain high, with the 30-year rate ranging between 6.53% and 7.04% over the past year.

Looking ahead, the main economic event this week will be the release of the FOMC minutes on Wednesday afternoon, followed by Chair Powell’s keynote at Jackson Hole on Friday at 10 a.m. ET. Powell has been notably silent since the latest U.S. jobs report, and markets have scaled back expectations of a September rate cut from 100% to 83%. Recent Fed commentary has been mixed: Bowman and Waller remain dovish, while Barkin, Daly, Goolsbee, Kashkari, Musalem, and Schmid have adopted a more noncommittal stance, leaving policy direction uncertain.

The USD is ending the day mostly higher

EUR: +0.27%
JPY: +0.45%
GBP: +0.37%
CHF: +0.07%
CAD: -0.10%
AUD: +0.20%
NZD: +0.02%

The biggest mover was the USDJPY with most of the gains happening before the US session. The par did extend to a new high in the first few hours of trading, but backed off into the European session and into the US afternoon. At session highs, the price extended to the 100-bar MA at 147.908, where sellers leaned on the test. The pair is trading at 147.86 going into the close with the 100-bar MA setting up as a key level for both buyers and sellers in the new day.

The EURUSD and the GBPUSD moved lower and is closing near the lows for the day.

For the EURUSD, it fell to the 100 hour MA near 1.1663, falling to a low of 1.16155, but momentum faded and the price is trading right at the 200-hour MA going into the close.
For the GBPUSD, it fell below its 100-hour MA at 1.3545, and stretched toward the 200-hour MA at 1.3484, but is having some stall at the natural support at 1.3500. In the new trading day, that MA will be in play. Moving below will be more bearish.

The other currency pairs are within 0.20% from the closing level on Friday.

In the US stock market, the 3 major indices were little changed.