Forex Technicals: The USD is lower vs the major currencies to kickstart the US day. | investingLive
Traders are using technical levels in the EURUSD, USDJPY and GBPUSD, to drive trading decisions. The video above outlines those technical levels. Below are some highlights of those moves:
The EURUSD broke lower in the early Asian session, slipping beneath a confluence of technical support: the 200-hour moving average, the 61.8% retracement of the range since July, and a rising trendline — all clustered near 1.1661. That break triggered selling pressure, but downside momentum stalled just ahead of the next key target at 1.16309, which had been Thursday’s low and also marked the top of a prior swing area.
The failure to extend below 1.16309, combined with a rebound back above the broken support cluster, shifted the bias back to the upside. The pair is now trading just above the 100-hour moving average at 1.16825 and pressing into a resistance zone between 1.1692 and 1.17028.
A sustained move through this resistance area would open the door for further upside momentum, reinforcing the bullish tilt. Conversely, slipping back below the 200-hour moving average and 1.1661 would once again weaken the outlook.
The USDJPY initially pushed higher in the Asian session, extending yesterday’s upside momentum. The move carried the pair above the 148.00 level, which corresponds to the 38.2% retracement of the decline from the August high, and into a key swing area between 147.95 and 148.166. However, upside momentum stalled within that zone, leading to a rotation lower.
During the European morning session, the pair found support at the 200-hour moving average near 147.52, which aligned with a rising trendline—both helping to halt the decline. Since then, price action has consolidated in a relatively narrow trading range.
For now, the 200-hour moving average (147.52) and the 100-hour moving average (147.33) remain the critical downside support levels. Holding above them keeps the short-term bias tilted in favor of buyers. On the topside, a break above the 38.2% retracement and swing resistance zone (147.95–148.166) would open the door for renewed upside momentum.
The GBPUSD fell sharply yesterday after breaking below its 100-hour moving average, which accelerated selling momentum. The decline extended into the Asian session today, with the pair dropping to test the rising 200-hour moving average. At that point, buyers stepped in to defend the level, sparking a rebound.
From the session low of 1.34872, the price has since recovered to a high of 1.35304, and is currently trading near 1.3520. The defense of the 200-hour moving average underscores its importance as a key support going forward. Holding above this level keeps the door open for further upside targets.
On the topside, immediate resistance comes at the 61.8% retracement of the range since the July 1 high at 1.35397, followed by the 100-hour moving average near 1.3545. A move through both levels would strengthen the bullish bias and shift momentum more firmly back to buyers.
Geopolitics remains a key talking point ahead of the Fed meeting minutes on Wednesday and chair Powell’s speech at Jackson Hole on Friday.
Pres. Trump hosted European leaders along with Ukraine’s president Zelenskyy at the White House yesterday. It seems that the meeting and subsequent call to Putin afterwards, have led to a bilateral meeting between Putin and Zelenskyy. That is hoped to be followed by a trilateral meeting between the US, Putin, and Zelenskyy. Trump is now saying that Zelenskyy has to show some flexibility. It is time for peace.
US building permits and housing starts will be released at 8:30 AM. The building permits are expected at 1.386 million versus 1.393 million last month. The housing starts are expected at 1.290 million versus 1.321 million last month.
Also at 8:30 AM ET will be Canada CPI which is expected to rise by 0.3% versus 0.1%. The year-over-year inflation is expected at 1.8 versus 1.9%. The core median and the core trim are both expected at 3.1%.
US stocks are mixed in premarket trading:
- Dow industrial average +64.18 points
- S&P index -1.90 points
- NASDAQ index -25.0 point
In the US debt market, yields are lower by -1.5 – 2.5 basis points after rising modestly yesterday:
- 2-year yield 3.756%, -1.7 basis points
- 5- year yield 3.837%, -1.7 basis points
- 10 year yield 4.321%, -1.7 basis points
- 30 year yield 4.920%, -2.2 basis points