Latest UK inflation data puts the BOE in an even tougher spot | investingLive
On the surface, the numbers already don’t look all too encouraging as seen here. Traders were already not expecting a rate cut next month but this may well see market pricing shift towards no rate cuts at all for the year soon enough.
The immediate details show that there are some volatile factors leading to the increase in price pressures in July. ONS notes that transport prices in particular were a big driver of that, largely due to a surge in airfares and hotels. On that, the UK stats office argues that it could be possibly influenced by the timing of school summer holidays.
“Returning European flights were during the school term in 2024, whereas returning European flights were during the school holidays in 2025, which may have made these flights more expensive.”
Even so, there are other concerning details in the report to be wary of. In core terms, annual services inflation crept back up to 5.0% – up from 4.7% in June. And food price inflation moved up to 4.9% in July, up from 4.5% in June, to its highest since February last year:
If markets are looking for a reason to scale back on rate cut expectations for this year, there’s quite a bit in the report here to point to.
And if anything else, all of this will continue to bolster the idea of stagflation risks for the BOE towards the end of the year.