The ups and downs continue in currency markets as all eyes are on the Fed chair tomorrow | investingLive

The USD is little changed vs the EUR and the GBP to kickstart the US day in what is becoming a pattern of up and down trading. The USDJPY is retracing the losses from yeaterday (and more). in the video above, I take a technical view of each of the pairs and try to make technical sense of the price action BTW. All eyes are on the Fed Chair Powell’s speech tomorrow, but today the initial jobless claims and continuing claims (estimate 225K versus 224K and 1.960 million versus 1.953 million respectively) will be the focus. There is also the Philadelphia Fed business index (7.0 versus 15.9 last month), Canadian producer prices (0.3% versus 0.4% last month), the S&P Manufacturing PMI flash (estimate 49.5 versus 49.8), and existing home sales (3.92M versus 3.93M last month) to ponder.

Overnight The PMI flash estimates for the EU and UK were mixed. Below is a summary of the beats and misses:

BEAT:

French Flash Manufacturing PMI: 49.9 vs 48.2 expectation (Previous 48.2)
French Flash Services PMI: 49.7 vs 48.5 expectation (Previous 48.5)
German Flash Manufacturing PMI: 49.9 vs 48.8 expectation (Previous 49.1)
Eurozone Flash Manufacturing PMI: 50.5 vs 49.5 expectation (Previous 49.8)
UK Flash Services PMI: 53.6 vs 51.8 expectation (Previous 51.8)

MISSED:

German Flash Services PMI: 50.1 vs 50.4 expectation (Previous 50.6)
Eurozone Flash Services PMI: 50.7 vs 50.8 expectation (Previous 51.0)
UK Flash Manufacturing PMI: 47.3 vs 48.2 expectation (Previous 48.0)

The US and EU issued a joint statement outlining the framework of their recent trade agreement, highlighting tariff relief on autos that could come in “hopefully weeks” once the EU introduces legislation to lower tariffs. The EU committed to eliminating tariffs on all US industrial goods, granting preferential access for US seafood and agriculture, and procuring $750 billion in US energy products, while also planning $600 billion in strategic US investments through 2028. In return, the US will maintain 15% tariffs on most EU imports, including autos, pharmaceuticals, and semiconductors, but pledged to reduce auto tariffs once the EU’s legislation is introduced. For now, the statement remains a framework rather than a finalized trade deal.

Ukrainian President Zelensky said Kyiv wants clarity on security guarantees within 7–10 days, stressing the need for a strong U.S. reaction if Russia resists bilateral talks. He outlined plans for a $50 billion U.S. drone deal over five years, including mass production of 10 million drones and Ukraine’s new “Flamingo” missile. Zelensky rejected Budapest as a peace venue, reaffirmed that Ukraine will not recognize Russian-occupied territories, and excluded China from guarantees due to its stance after the invasion. He added that Moscow shows no willingness to end the war, while Ukraine has tested a new long-range missile. War is bad.

Looking at the premarket for US stocks, the major indices are lower. A snapshot shows:

Dow industrial average -179 points
S&P index -19.28 points
NASDAQ index -55 points

Walmart announced its earnings this morning, and EPS came in weaker than expected at $0.68 versus $0.73 expected. Revenues were higher however, at $177.4 billion versus $176.09 billion. They did raise the net sales and EPS outlook for fiscal year 2026. Walmart shares are down 3.4% in premarket trading.

US yields are up about to basis points across curve: