Silver beats gold, equities and Bitcoin in strongest 5-year rally — but can it break its 4-year jinx?

Silver has emerged as the clear favourite among experts, with many betting it will finally break its four-year jinx and outpace gold in 2025. The white metal is already ahead with 42% year-to-date gains versus gold’s 36%. Both precious metals are posting their strongest performance in seven years, far outshining equities and even Bitcoin — but silver is giving its shinier peer a genuine run for its money.

In absolute terms, silver has risen by Rs 37,281 per kg, while gold is dearer by Rs 27,976 per 10 grams.

Gold vs Silver

Silver has lagged behind gold for the past four years. In 2024, it delivered 17% returns compared with gold’s 21%. The only exception since 2019 was the Covid year of 2020, when silver outshone gold with a stellar 49% gain versus 28% for the latter.
By the end of 2025, silver may outperform gold simply because it has both a precious and industrial element, said Renisha Chainani, Head – Research at Augmont. “It receives strong demand from solar, EVs, and electronics, and because of these persistent supply deficits, there is a structural tailwind,” she added.

Echoing a similar sentiment, Nilesh Jain, Vice President, Equity Research – Technical and Derivatives at Centrum Broking, sees the outperformance in both gold and silver continuing, with silver expected to give superior returns. He relies on the present chart structure to support his claim.”The Gold/Silver ratio is in a downward channel, forming lower tops and bottoms. It has broken below its 200-day moving average, signaling more weakness. With a historical average of 68, the ratio has room to fall further, indicating continued outperformance of silver over gold. The short-term outlook for the ratio is weak, with a target of 84,” he said.Silver’s appeal as an industrial metal gives it an edge over gold, said Anuj Gupta, Director at Ya Wealth Global Research. “Overall, silver appears poised to remain sought after both as an investment and industrial metal, giving it more strength relative to gold,” he added. The declining gold-to-silver ratio implies that silver is gaining relative strength and may continue to yield higher returns than the yellow metal in the near term.

Silver’s valuation superiority

Silver’s relatively cheaper valuation offers stronger return potential, said Chainani of Augmont. Despite a sharp decline in the gold-to-silver ratio from extreme highs of over 100, the ratio is still elevated compared to the historical average of 60–65, suggesting that silver remains undervalued relative to gold.

Gold, on the other hand, is currently trading in an overheated zone and may see a correction.

Investment strategy

Gold will remain the strongest safe-haven hedge in times of fiscal stress, geopolitical tension, and rate cuts, which enhance the appeal of non-yielding assets.

High-beta silver remains the best bet for higher returns for investors with greater risk appetite, said Kranthi Bathini, Director – Equity Strategy at WealthMills Securities. Its dual utility as both an investment and industrial metal strengthens the case for silver. Bathini added that he has been recommending silver over gold and remains bullish on it.

Conservative investors should retain gold as their primary allocation, while aggressive investors could switch to silver, suggested Chainani. A reasonable target portfolio could be 70% gold and 30% silver. By holding both, investors can balance safety with growth potential.

Bullion vs Nifty

Jain of Centrum Broking sees an upside to Rs 1,12,000 in gold, as momentum indicators and oscillators have confirmed a buy crossover, reinforcing the positive outlook. The immediate support is placed at Rs 1,01,000.

Gupta of Ya Wealth expects gold to hover in the Rs 1,05,000–1,08,000 range, while silver could hit Rs 1,25,000–1,40,000 this year.

Following its all-time high of 26,277.35 in September 2024, the Nifty has failed to reclaim that level. It has also struggled to sustain 25,000 despite breaching it multiple times this year.

On the Nifty’s outlook, Gupta of Ya Wealth said the index could recover over the next 2–3 months and trade in the 25,500–26,000 range by December-end, given that most big negatives are already priced in. For the index to reclaim its lifetime high, Reliance Industries (RIL) and other heavyweights must play a bigger role, he added.

(Disclaimer: Recommendations, suggestions, views and opinions given by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of the Economic Times)