August non-farm payrolls set to be one of the “most consequential” in a while – SocGen | investingLive

Societe Generale is stressing that the jobs report this week is going to be an extremely crucial one with the stakes running high. Stronger-than-expected data might put off the Fed from easing in the near-term, or at least limit that potential. Meanwhile, further softness in the data could see the Fed embark on a forceful 100 bps rate cutting cycle in the months ahead.

As for their own estimates, the firm is expecting 68k payrolls gain for August. That should confirm weakening conditions but not exactly a collapse in labour demand. Meanwhile, they expect the unemployment rate to hold at 4.2% but highlights that the risks are tilted to the upside for the jobless rate.

On wages, Societe Generale sees average hourly earnings at +0.3% m/m, which will lower the annual estimate to +3.7% due to base effects.