OPEC+ to raise oil output in October as Saudi pushes market-share strategy | investingLive

OPEC+ will lift oil production again in October, though at a slower pace, as Saudi Arabia prioritises market share over price stability.

• The group agreed to raise output by 137,000 barrels per day, down sharply from the larger hikes of recent months.

The decision marks the start of an early unwind of a 1.65 million bpd cut, following the complete reversal of a 2.5 million bpd reduction earlier this year. Analysts say the move is less about volume and more about signalling OPEC+’s intent to reclaim share, even if it risks lower prices. Saudi Arabia and the UAE remain the only members with capacity to add significant supply.

The announcement comes ahead of a seasonal demand slowdown, with crude already down about 15% this year to ~$65 a barrel, pressuring oil company profits and jobs despite support from Western sanctions on Russia and Iran.

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Bearish for oil prices near term, supportive for importers (EUR, JPY, INR); potential headwind for petrocurrencies (CAD, NOK, RUB) if crude stays weak. Having said all this, the decision has not come as too much of a surprise for markets.