The USDCAD runs lower after testing a key upside target area. | investingLive

The USDCAD moved higher earlier in the session, pressing into the 1.3891–1.3904 zone, which marked the low of a key swing area highlighted in yesterday’s technical update. That level once again proved to be a tough ceiling. The inability to extend through resistance, coupled with U.S. data releases—initial jobless claims and CPI—shifted the tone, sparking a steady move lower in the pair over the past few hours.

On the downside, the decline has carried the pair back toward another swing area between 1.3812 and 1.3831. This zone is now joined by the rising 100-hour moving average, currently at 1.3859, making it a critical short-term pivot for traders.

This area will serve as the barometer for near-term bias. For dip buyers, the 1.3812–1.3831 region offers a potential support zone to lean against. A bounce from here could see momentum shift back to the upside, with the 1.3890–1.3904 zone again coming into play as resistance.

Conversely, a decisive break below the 100-hour MA and the swing floor at 1.3812 would tilt the balance toward sellers, increasing the bearish bias and opening the door for a deeper correction.