What are the main events for today? | investingLive

In the European session, we just have the ECB rate decision on the agenda. The central bank is expected to keep interest rates unchanged and offer limited forward guidance. They will likely repeat that they are now in a good position to deal with any problems that might surface in the future but further rate cuts will need significant reasons to happen. Basically, it’s going to be a non-event.

In the American session, we get the US CPI and Jobless Claims figures. The Core CPI Y/Y is expected at 3.1% vs 3.1% prior, while the Core M/M figure is seen at 0.3% vs 0.3% prior. A soft report will likely raise the probabilities for a 50 bps cut to around 40-60% and then WSJ’s Timiraos could “leak” again by how much the Fed is likely to cut.

On the other hand, a hot report won’t change anything regarding the 25 bps September cut but could trigger a slightly hawkish repricing for the 2026 pricing (3 rate cuts expected at the moment).

The US Jobless Claims data will be released at the same time of the US CPI, so in case we get big deviations, it might even steal the show. Initial Claims are expected at 235K vs 237K prior, while Continuing Claims are seen at 1951K vs 1940K prior. There’s some uneasiness in relation to the actual labour market state given two consecutive soft NFP reports.

The Jobless Claims data is the most timely indicator we have on the labour market and it hasn’t been flashing red. Sure, the data continues to show a low hiring and low firing environment but nothing serious, especially if taken together with the positive business surveys.

In case we get strong data coupled with a hot CPI report, the hawkish repricing should be more significant than just a hot CPI and in line claims. Of course, if we get a soft CPI and soft claims, then the dovish bets will likely increase. A soft CPI and strong claims could still see the probabilities of a 50 bps cut increase but it should remain roughly the same further down the curve.