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The USD is steady vs the major currencies to start the US session. Fed Powell to speak. | investingLive

The USD is little changed to start the US trading session. the biggest mover is the AUDUSD which is higher on the day (0.14%). The EURUSD is down -0.08%. The GBPUSD and the NZDUSD are both unchanged on the day.

There are a number of Fed speakers today, highlighted by the Fed Chair Powell. Below is the schedule:

  • 09:00 – Michelle Bowman (Fed Vice Chair for Supervision)

    Economic outlook at Kentucky Bankers Association Convention.

  • 10:00 – Raphael Bostic (Atlanta Fed President)

    Economic outlook at Macro Musings live podcast in Atlanta.

  • 12:35 – Jerome Powell (Fed Chair)

    Economic outlook at Greater Providence Chamber of Commerce luncheon.

Key themes expected:

Last week Powell after the Fed’s cut said:

  • The rate cut was a “risk management” move: to guard against rising downside risks to employment while inflation remains above target.

  • There is a shift in how the Fed is viewing its dual mandate (inflation & employment): the balance of risks is more even than before. The risk to employment (from further cooling or weakening) is greater than it was; while the risk of inflation running persistently high has lessened a bit (though still very much present).

  • The Fed is not on a preset course. Future policy steps (rate cuts or otherwise) will depend heavily on incoming data, how inflation evolves, labor market developments, and external risks.

Meanwhile, Fed’s Bowman is likely to keep focus on supervisory and regulatory perspectives while outlining her dovish view for policy, and Bostic is expected to discuss growth and employment dynamics, and how they shape his policy outlook.

The S&P flash manufacturing and services PMI data came out in the EU and the UK. In summary:

Eurozone

  • French Manufacturing PMI: 48.1 (vs 50.2 exp, 50.4 prev) → miss, contraction deepens

  • French Services PMI: 48.9 (vs 49.7 exp, 49.8 prev) → miss, slight drop from prior

  • German Manufacturing PMI: 48.5 (vs 50.0 exp, 48.8 prev) → miss, still contraction

  • German Services PMI: 52.5 (vs 49.5 exp, 49.3 prev) → beat, rebound into expansion

  • Eurozone Manufacturing PMI (aggregate): 49.5 (vs 50.7 exp, 50.7 prev) → miss, still contraction/ lower vs last month

  • Eurozone Services PMI (aggregate): 51.4 (vs 50.6 exp, 50.5 prev) → beat, expansion strengthens

United Kingdom

  • UK Manufacturing PMI: 46.2 (vs 47.1 exp, 47.0 prev) → miss, deeper contraction

  • UK Services PMI: 51.9 (vs 53.4 exp, 54.2 prev) → miss, still expansion but slowing sharply

Summary:

  • Manufacturing: Weak across the board (France, Germany, Eurozone, UK), all readings below 50 and missing forecasts.

  • Services: Mixed picture — Germany and Eurozone showed surprising strength with beats and expansion, while France and the UK missed, with the UK slowing notably

Looking at the related US markets, the US stock indices are little changed after closing at record levels yesterday:

  • Dow industrial average up 59 points
  • S&P index is trading above and below unchanged
  • NASDAQ index up 3.18 points.

In the US debt market, yields are marginally lower ahead of the 2 year note auction at 1 PM:

  • 2-year yield 3.596%, -0.4 basis points.
  • 5 year yield 3.685%, -1.0 basis points
  • 10 year yield 4.129%, -1.4 basis points
  • 30 year yield 4.751%, -0.9 basis points

Looking at other markets:

  • Crude oil is trading up $0.72 at $63.00. The price remains below its 100 day moving average at $64.37.
  • Gold continues to rise, reaching a new all-time intraday high at $3791. The current price is trading up $34.50 or 0.92% at $3780.
  • Silver is extending to a new high going back to 2011 at $44.43. It is currently trading at $44.26
  • Bitcoin is up $337 at $113,078