Why the US dollar is climbing and why the Fed should be worried | investingLive

The US dollar is at the highs of the day and if you listened to Delta CEO CEO Ed Bastian today, you would know why.

The way he outlined it, consumers pulled back around Liberation Day but as trade deals started to come, so did the spending. That has continued into Q4 and the company is forecasting a strong 2026.

What if the Fed is being misdirected by the April-July slump and not realizing that there is some fresh momentum in the consumer, and the economy? They could be cutting at a time when things are heating up. That could lead to a rapid pivot in the Fed stance, and a repricing of the 100 bps of cuts in the Fed funds futures market through this time next year.

In context, this is a fairly small move in the US dollar but if there is a big rethink, this will be only the beginning.