USDCAD Technicals: The USDCAD remains above the old ceiling.Can momentum be reestablished? | investingLive

The USDCAD started the week with a strong technical break to the upside, moving above a key swing area and the 38.2% retracement between 1.40106 and 1.40212. That area had been a clear dividing line on the charts, representing the first major retracement level of the recent move lower. The break drew in momentum buyers and carried the pair to a high of 1.4074 before stalling and rotating modestly back lower.

The good news for the buyers is that the initial breakout zone — the swing area and 38.2% retracement — has held as support on the pullback. This area now defines the bullish bias for the pair. As long as price action remains above 1.4010–1.4021, the technical picture continues to favor buyers, with the bias tilted toward a retest of the 1.4074 high. A move above that level would open the door toward the 50% retracement target near 1.4169, with little in the way of major resistance in between.

Conversely, a break back below the 1.4010 area would be a disappointment for traders who bought the breakout, suggesting a potential failed break. In that case, the downside focus would shift toward 1.3986, followed by the rising 100-bar MA on the 4-hour chart, and then the 200-day MA around 1.3948–1.3950 — both critical zones for restoring downside control.

For now, buyers remain in play, defending the key support zone and keeping the bullish bias alive. The question going forward is whether they can reignite the upside momentum and push through the 1.4074 barrier, or whether the consolidation turns into a deeper corrective phase.