Nomura: China likely to drop specific growth target in 15th Five-Year Plan | investingLive

The 15th Five-Year Plan (2026–2030) will be discussed by China’s leadership this month.

• Nomura expects Beijing to omit a specific growth target, focusing on resilience, security, and inclusiveness.

• The plan carries greater significance amid global influence and domestic property-market challenges.

• The final plan will go to the National People’s Congress in March 2026.

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Nomura expects Beijing to avoid setting a specific GDP growth target in its upcoming 15th Five-Year Plan (2026–2030), opting instead to prioritise themes such as economic resilience, national security, and social inclusiveness.

The Chinese Communist Party’s Central Committee will meet in Beijing from October 20–23 to discuss the plan, which will outline China’s medium-term economic and social development framework. The final version is scheduled to be submitted to the National People’s Congress for approval in March 2026.

Nomura said the next plan may carry greater strategic importance than the current 14th Five-Year Plan (2021–2025), reflecting China’s expanded global influence and the persistent challenges from the prolonged property-market downturn that began in 2021.

While acknowledging that the 14th plan achieved several policy goals, the bank said there remains “considerable room for improvement” as Beijing seeks to adapt its economic model to slower growth, demographic shifts, and structural reforms.

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Nomura’s outlook signals a shift in China’s policy emphasis from quantitative growth to qualitative stability, implying continued policy support for strategic sectors but fewer stimulus measures aimed at short-term expansion.