MCX silver breaks past Rs 1.70 lakh. Festive glow or the start of a bigger surge?
Silver prices surged to a new high on the Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX) on Thursday, October 17, with the December 2025 futures contract hitting Rs 1,70,415 per kilogram, up Rs 1,977 or 1.18% for the day.
The rally takes silver’s total gains for the month of October to 19.8%, rising from the closing price of Rs 1,42,145 on September 30. This marks one of the sharpest monthly moves for the metal in recent times, reflecting both strong festive demand and industrial interest.
Silver’s recent rally has brought renewed attention to the metal’s long-term prospects, with analysts suggesting that the current uptrend is rooted in deeper fundamentals. Mahendra Patil, Founder and Managing Partner at MP Financial Advisory Services LLP (MPFASL), observes that silver has entered “a phase of structural endurance rather than speculative exuberance.”
Patil noted that while silver has historically shown volatility, history offers a fascinating perspective. The metal previously tested the $50/oz mark in 1980 and 2011, and with 2025 marking its third such approach, the focus now shifts to whether it can build sustained momentum.
In 2025, silver jumped from $29 to over $47 per ounce, “its highest level in more than a decade.” MPFASL attributes this momentum to a confluence of drivers, including “higher expectations from US rate cuts, sustained central-bank buying, and industrial restocking across solar and electronics supply chains.”
Highlighting its dual appeal, Patil stated: “Silver, meanwhile, is gaining ground as a symbolic and practical substitute. Beyond its decorative appeal, the industrial demand linked to solar panels, electronics, and electric mobility adds fundamental support to prices, creating a dual-use demand base that gold lacks.”The rise in silver demand is not limited to global markets. In India, silver imports have expanded significantly. “Silver imports too have expanded, reflecting its growing relevance as an industrial and investment metal within the renewable-energy and electronics value chains,” MPFASL said.Data provided by the firm also showed that silver delivered an annualised return of 32.92% in the CY2023–CY2025 period, with a volatility of 24.66%, based on historical performance. The correlation between gold and silver during this period stood at 0.95, reflecting close movement in prices, albeit silver’s trajectory has increasingly stemmed from industrial dynamism.
Outlook for silver
Looking ahead, MPFASL suggests that silver may continue to benefit from its industrial underpinnings. “Silver too exceeded expectations, crossing $47 per oz on renewed industrial restocking in solar and electronics,” the report noted.
Most projections suggest silver is expected to hover in the $44–50 per oz range through FY2026. While gold may see consolidation, “silver amplified the momentum as the cyclical bellwether of a broader industrial revival.”
As India heads deeper into the festive season and industrial restocking continues globally, the metal’s trajectory will likely depend on sustained demand from the electronics and renewable sectors. MPFASL adds that silver’s ability to cross the $50/oz mark may hinge on whether it can “finally build sustained momentum and move toward the next big landmark, its metaphorical ‘century’.”
For domestic traders, Rs 1,70,415 now stands as a key resistance level on MCX. With industrial and festive tailwinds in play, attention will remain on whether silver can build upon this rally or consolidate near its current highs.
Also read: Silver’s great disconnect: MCX prices soar but ETFs crash 8%. What’s really happening?
(Disclaimer: Recommendations, suggestions, views and opinions given by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of The Economic Times)