Oil may soften to $60 as OPEC+ pauses output hikes; silver set to shine in 2026, says Peter McGuire
Global commodities are in for a volatile ride as OPEC+ pauses output hikes and the US Federal Reserve’s rate policy keeps investors on edge, said Peter McGuire, CEO of Australia-Trading.com. He expects oil prices to soften through the end of 2025, while gold and silver could stage a renewed rally in early 2026.
“OPEC+ surprised markets by raising December production targets slightly, but it’s likely to act cautiously in Q1 2026. By Q2, we could see fresh output decisions as the group balances price stability with market share competition,” McGuire told ET Now.
He added that global demand, the US dollar’s trajectory, and tariff developments will remain key factors influencing oil dynamics.
Oil prices may fall to $60 for Brent by year-end
According to McGuire, both WTI and Brent crude could drift lower over the coming months as oversupply pressures and weaker global demand weigh on sentiment.
“Brent is hovering around $65 and WTI near $61. By Christmas, I expect prices to soften — Brent around $60 and WTI in the high $50s. The market will reassess direction in Q2 2026 depending on OPEC+ strategy,” he said.
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He also warned of a potential “price war” next year as producers fight to maintain market share amid non-OPEC supply growth.
Gold to stay strong, Fed rate moves in focus
On precious metals, McGuire said gold remains resilient near $4,000 and could move higher in early 2026 if the Fed cuts rates again.“Gold got overheated at $4,400 and corrected to $3,900 before stabilizing around $4,025. The Fed’s latest rate cut helped, but there’s uncertainty about another one in December,” he noted.
He added that global risks, including the US government shutdown and equity market volatility, could further lift safe-haven demand.
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“Gold will likely be higher at the start of 2026 than where it is now,” he said confidently.
Silver poised for another breakout year
McGuire reiterated his bullish view on silver, citing long-term underinvestment and rising industrial demand.
“Silver has been undervalued for years. The gold-silver ratio remains favorable, and with tech-related applications increasing, silver’s best days are ahead. 2026 will be another strong year,” he said.
He expects the silver rally to continue as the metal gains traction in clean energy, electronics, and EV technologies — all critical to global manufacturing supply chains.
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Fed’s December decision key to metals’ next leg
McGuire said a December rate cut, though unlikely, could spark another leg up in both gold and silver prices.
“If the Fed cuts in December — even by a small margin — gold could see a strong bounce above $4,200. But the probability is only about 30%. Much will depend on inflation trends and the US dollar’s strength,” he added.
He also highlighted the importance of watching US equity markets and the dollar index, both of which remain tightly correlated with precious metal performance.
Key takeaways
- OPEC+ pause signals cautious oil market management into early 2026.
- Brent may fall to $60, WTI to high $50s by year-end 2025.
- Gold stable near $4,000; could rise in early 2026 with Fed easing.
- Silver to outperform gold, driven by industrial demand and underinvestment.
- Rate cuts and dollar weakness remain key global triggers for 2026.