Gold prices gain 1% in a volatile week. What’s in it for investors starting Monday?

Gold may have zigzagged through bouts of red and green this week, pressured by fading Fed rate cut bets and firm U.S. jobs data, but the metal ultimately held its ground. By Friday’s close, the yellow metal had quietly secured a 1% rise for the week. The Indian Rupee’s slide to a record low against the Dollar has added a fresh layer of complexity for bullion traders, and experts warn that volatility is unlikely to ease in the week ahead.

“Gold is expected to remain volatile within a range of Rs 1,20,000–Rs 1,24,000. The yellow metal traded highly volatile as Comex gold fell 1% to $4,035, down by $41, while MCX gold rose Rs 300 due to a sharp rupee depreciation of nearly 1% from 88.70 to 89.60. The weak rupee offset global pressure, keeping domestic prices resilient. Stronger-than-expected U.S. Nonfarm Payroll data has weakened expectations of a December rate cut by the Federal Reserve, and will weigh on global sentiment,” says Jateen Trivedi, Research Analyst at LKP Securities said.

The latest US Fed Minutes indicated a split among Federal Reserve officials over the need for rate cuts, torn between concerns about a weakening labor market and persistent inflation. Traders now assign just a 29% chance of a rate cut next month.

The Fed meeting minutes revealed a divided Federal Reserve that cut rates last month despite concerns that easing too soon could undermine progress on inflation, which has remained above the 2% target for over four years. Governor Powell reinforced a cautious tone, stating that a December rate cut is not a “foregone conclusion.”

How should you trade gold and silver?

“Gold continues to maintain a strong bullish framework. Comex gold closed at $4,079.5, while MCX gold settled around Rs 1,24,191, finding support precisely on the multi-month rising trendline. A weekly Doji on the slope, following last week’s inverted hammer, signals strong accumulation and rejection of lower levels, reflecting resilient investor interest,” Ponmudi R, CEO of Enrich Money, a SEBI-registered online trading and wealthtech firm.
Key MCX support lies at Rs 1,21,800–Rs 1,22,000, with a hold above this zone opening short-term targets at Rs 1,25,500–Rs 1,27,200 and medium-term targets at Rs 1,27,200–Rs 1,28,800+, while near-term resistance is seen at Rs 1,24,500–Rs 1,25,000.
As for silver, December future prices corrected by nearly 1%. “On MCX, the Rs 1,50,000–Rs 1,51,000 zone forms immediate make-or-break support, while near-term resistance lies at Rs 1,56,000–Rs 1,58,000. These levels align with previous pattern zones that triggered sharp rebounds during September–October pullbacks,” Ponmudi added.
As long as support holds, the bullish structure remains valid, with upside projections toward Rs 1,58,000, Rs 1,62,000, and Rs 1,65,000–Rs 1,68,000 on MCX. A decisive breakout above resistance could trigger the next leg higher.

As a non-yielding asset, gold usually draws stronger interest when rates fall or economic pressures rise. The recent reopening of the U.S. government, following an unprecedented 43-day shutdown, has also helped calm investors by ensuring the timely release of key economic indicators.

(Disclaimer: Recommendations, suggestions, views and opinions given by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of The Economic Times)