What are the main events for today? | investingLive

In the European session, we don’t have anything on the agenda. Given the looming Fed’s decision, the price action today will likely be rangebound into the event.

In the American session, we have the BoC and FOMC monetary policy decisions. The BoC is expected to keep interest rates unchanged and remove the caveats to further easing to solidly state that the easing cycle is over.

This follows a slate of strong Canadian data that culminated with a blockbuster employment report last Friday. The market doesn’t expect any more rate cuts, on the contrary, it has fully priced in a rate hike by the end of 2026. The BoC might not sound hawkish yet, but it will very likely start to slowly move into that direction.

The Fed is expected to deliver a “hawkish” 25 bps cut and bring the FFR to 3.50-3.75%. We will also get the Summary of Economic Projections and the Dot Plot at this decision. Traders will look for hawkish or dovish signals in the statement, dot plot and Fed Chair Powell’s press conference.

After this cut, the market expects two more rate cuts in 2026: one is fully priced in by next June and the other by next December. The Fed projected just one rate cut in 2026, so a deviation from that forecast will influence expectations.

If the Fed were to leave its one cut projection unchanged for 2026, it will likely be tolerated despite being more hawkish compared to market pricing. Less than one or more than one is what should trigger a stronger reaction.