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USD/CAD holds steady above 1.3550 ahead of Canadian CPI, US Retail Sales data

  • USD/CAD flat lines around 1.3585 in Tuesday’s early Asian session. 
  • The US Fed is widely anticipated to cut interest rates on Wednesday, its first in four years. 
  • The Canadian CPI inflation report is due later on Tuesday. 

The USD/CAD pair trades on a flat note near 1.3585 during the early Asian session on Tuesday. Further decline in the US Dollar (USD) ahead of the key US Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate decision is likely to cap the upside for the pair. Later on Tuesday, investors will monitor the Canadian Consumer Price Index (CPI) and US Retail Sales for August for fresh impetus. 

The Fed will announce its interest rate decision on September 18, and it is widely expected to cut the federal funds rate by either 25 basis points (bps) or 50 bps. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, traders are now pricing in nearly 67% chance of a reduction of 50 bps, up from 50% on Friday. Meanwhile, the odds of a 25 bps rate cut stand at 33%. 

After the policy meeting, Fed officials will release new interest rate projections, known as the “dot plot,”  which might offer some hints about the US interest rate outlook for the remainder of this year and next. The expectation of larger rate cuts might exert some selling pressure on the Greenback in the near term. 

Canada’s CPI inflation data for August will be released on Tuesday, which is expected to rise 2.2% from a year ago, down from a 2.4% annual gain in July. The forecasters also estimated an inflation increase of 0.1% on a month-over-month basis in August. Any signs of slowing inflation might trigger the Bank of Canada (BoC) to speed up cuts to its key lending rate if circumstances warrant. However, if inflation is stronger than expected, the Canadian central bank could slow the pace of rate cuts.

Canadian Dollar FAQs

The key factors driving the Canadian Dollar (CAD) are the level of interest rates set by the Bank of Canada (BoC), the price of Oil, Canada’s largest export, the health of its economy, inflation and the Trade Balance, which is the difference between the value of Canada’s exports versus its imports. Other factors include market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – with risk-on being CAD-positive. As its largest trading partner, the health of the US economy is also a key factor influencing the Canadian Dollar.

The Bank of Canada (BoC) has a significant influence on the Canadian Dollar by setting the level of interest rates that banks can lend to one another. This influences the level of interest rates for everyone. The main goal of the BoC is to maintain inflation at 1-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively higher interest rates tend to be positive for the CAD. The Bank of Canada can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former CAD-negative and the latter CAD-positive.

The price of Oil is a key factor impacting the value of the Canadian Dollar. Petroleum is Canada’s biggest export, so Oil price tends to have an immediate impact on the CAD value. Generally, if Oil price rises CAD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Oil falls. Higher Oil prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance, which is also supportive of the CAD.

While inflation had always traditionally been thought of as a negative factor for a currency since it lowers the value of money, the opposite has actually been the case in modern times with the relaxation of cross-border capital controls. Higher inflation tends to lead central banks to put up interest rates which attracts more capital inflows from global investors seeking a lucrative place to keep their money. This increases demand for the local currency, which in Canada’s case is the Canadian Dollar.

Macroeconomic data releases gauge the health of the economy and can have an impact on the Canadian Dollar. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the CAD. A strong economy is good for the Canadian Dollar. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the Bank of Canada to put up interest rates, leading to a stronger currency. If economic data is weak, however, the CAD is likely to fall.