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USD/INR trades with mild losses ahead of US NFP data

  • Indian Rupee holds positive ground in Friday’s early European session.
  • The Indian HSBC Services PMI came in at 57.7 in September vs. 60.9 prior, weaker than expected.
  • Higher crude oil prices and Foreign Portfolio Investors (FPI) outflows weigh on the INR. 
  • Investors await the US employment data, which is due later on Friday.

The Indian Rupee (INR) recovers some lost ground on Friday. The rise in crude oil prices amid escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, the significant outflow from domestic equities and regional currency downtrends could undermine the INR. 
 
The latest data released on Friday showed that the HSBC India Services Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) declined to 57.7 in September from 60.9 in August, below the market consensus of 58.9. The local currency remains strong against the USD despite the downbeat Services PMI report. 

Looking ahead, the US employment data for September will take center stage, including Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) and Unemployment Rate. The US economy is expected to see 140K jobs added in September. While the Unemployment Rate is expected to remain unchanged at 4.2% in the same period. If the report shows a weaker-than-expected outcome, this could weigh on the Greenback. 

Daily Digest Market Movers: Indian Rupee trades firmer, potential upside seems limited 

  • According to the World Bank’s latest report, the Indian economy continues to grow at a healthy pace despite global challenges, but to reach its $1 trillion merchandise exports goal by 2030, India needs to diversify its export basket and leverage global value chains.
  • The US Services PMI climbed to 54.9 in September from 51.5 in August, the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) showed on Thursday. This figure came in stronger than the market forecast of 51.7. 
  • The US weekly Initial Jobless Claims in the US rose by 6,000 to 225,000 in the week ending September 28. This figure followed the previous week’s print of 219,000 (revised from 218,000) and was worse than the market expectation of 220,000. 
  • Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago President Austan Goolsbee reiterated on Thursday that the interest rates need to come down over the next year by “a lot.” Goolsbee further stated that he’d like to keep the unemployment rate at 4.2% and prevent it from rising any further.
  • The markets have priced in nearly 68.9% odds of a 25 bps Fed rate cut, while the chance of 50 bps reductions stands at 31.1%, according to the CME FedWatch Tool. 

Technical Analysis: USD/INR keeps the positive picture in the longer term

The Indian Rupee trades stronger on the day. The USD/INR pair maintains its constructive outlook on the daily chart as the price is well-supported above the key 100-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA). The path of least resistance level is to the upside as the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands above the midline near 61.0. 

The key upside barrier for USD/INR emerges at the 84.00 level, representing the upper boundary of the rectangle and psychological mark. A decisive break above this level could attract some buyers to 84.15 (the high of August 5), followed by 84.50. 

On the downside, the low of October 1 at 83.80 acts as an initial support level for the pair. A breach of this level could lead to the 100-day EMA at 83.65. Further south, the additional downside filter to watch is 83.00, representing the round mark and the low of May 24.

RBI FAQs

The role of the Reserve Bank of India (RBI), in its own words, is ‘..to maintain price stability while keeping in mind the objective of growth.” This involves maintaining the inflation rate at a stable 4% level primarily using the tool of interest rates. The RBI also maintains the exchange rate at a level that will not cause excess volatility and problems for exporters and importers, since India’s economy is heavily reliant on foreign trade, especially Oil.

The RBI formally meets at six bi-monthly meetings a year to discuss its monetary policy and, if necessary, adjust interest rates. When inflation is too high (above its 4% target), the RBI will normally raise interest rates to deter borrowing and spending, which can support the Rupee (INR). If inflation falls too far below target, the RBI might cut rates to encourage more lending, which can be negative for INR.

Due to the importance of trade to the economy, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) actively intervenes in FX markets to maintain the exchange rate within a limited range. It does this to ensure Indian importers and exporters are not exposed to unnecessary currency risk during periods of FX volatility. The RBI buys and sells Rupees in the spot market at key levels, and uses derivatives to hedge its positions.