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Gold surges to record high above $3,200 on US-China tariff war

  • Gold price jumps to around $3,215 in Friday’s Asian session, adding 1.27% on the day. 
  • An escalation of the US-China trade underpins the Gold price. 
  • Pared-back Fed rate cut bets might help limit the XAU/USD’s losses. 

The Gold price (XAU/USD) holds positive ground around $3,215 after hitting an all-time high of $3,219 during the Asian trading hours on Friday. The weakening of the US Dollar (USD) and escalating trade war between the United States (US) and China provides some support to the precious metal, a traditional safe haven asset.

Data released by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) on Thursday revealed that US consumer prices unexpectedly fell in March, but inflation risks are tilted to the upside after US President Donald Trump doubled down on China tariffs. The US CPI inflation eased to 2.4% YoY in March from 2.8% in February. This reading came in below the market expectation of 2.6%.

The core CPI, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, increased 2.8% YoY in March, compared to a rise of 3.1% seen in February and came in below the consensus of 3.0%. On a monthly basis, the headline CPI declined 0.1%, while the core CPI rose 0.1%. 

Trump said on Wednesday he would temporarily lower duties on dozens of countries. However, Trump also raised tariffs on China to 125%, effective immediately, after Beijing announced plans to retaliate with 84% duties. The worries over the global economy and the renewed trade tensions between the world’s two biggest economies keep investors in safe-haven assets, supporting the Gold price. 

“Gold regains its safe-haven appeal and gets back on track for new all-time highs,” said Nikos Tzabouras, Senior Market Analyst at Tradu.com.

On the other hand, pared-back Federal Reserve (Fed) rate cut bets that can strengthen the Greenback and weigh on the USD-denominated commodity price. Traders are now expecting the Fed will resume cutting interest rates in June and probably reduce its policy rate by a full percentage point by the end of the year.

Tariffs FAQs

Tariffs are customs duties levied on certain merchandise imports or a category of products. Tariffs are designed to help local producers and manufacturers be more competitive in the market by providing a price advantage over similar goods that can be imported. Tariffs are widely used as tools of protectionism, along with trade barriers and import quotas.

Although tariffs and taxes both generate government revenue to fund public goods and services, they have several distinctions. Tariffs are prepaid at the port of entry, while taxes are paid at the time of purchase. Taxes are imposed on individual taxpayers and businesses, while tariffs are paid by importers.

There are two schools of thought among economists regarding the usage of tariffs. While some argue that tariffs are necessary to protect domestic industries and address trade imbalances, others see them as a harmful tool that could potentially drive prices higher over the long term and lead to a damaging trade war by encouraging tit-for-tat tariffs.

During the run-up to the presidential election in November 2024, Donald Trump made it clear that he intends to use tariffs to support the US economy and American producers. In 2024, Mexico, China and Canada accounted for 42% of total US imports. In this period, Mexico stood out as the top exporter with $466.6 billion, according to the US Census Bureau. Hence, Trump wants to focus on these three nations when imposing tariffs. He also plans to use the revenue generated through tariffs to lower personal income taxes.