What are the main events for today? | Forexlive
It’s going to be a boring day on the data front as we just have the UK CPI report on the agenda. The Core CPI Y/Y is expected at 3.6% vs. 3.4% prior, while the Services CPI Y/Y is seen at 4.8% vs. 4.7% prior. Just by looking at these numbers I really can’t understand why the BoE cut rates at the last meeting. They still have a long way to go to sustainably reach their 2% target.
The market is pricing an 87% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting and a total of 41 bps of easing by year-end. As of now, I think there’s a mispricing and the market should expect just one rate cut at most. Higher than expected readings today could trigger such repricing, while lower than expected ones should keep us around two rate cuts by year-end.
Central bank speakers:
- 16:00 GMT/12:00 ET – Fed’s Barkin (neutral – non voter)
- 16:00 GMT/12:00 ET – ECB’s Lane (neutral – voter)
- 19:30 GMT/15:30 ET – ECB’s de Guindos (neutral – voter)
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