USDCAD trades to a new low for 2025 and going back to October 2024 | Forexlive

The USDCAD opened the day with a modest move higher, but on the daily chart, the rally once again stalled just below a key technical level—the 61.8% retracement of the 2024 decline at 1.37415. The high reached 1.3738 before reversing lower (see chart above).

That rejection helped push the pair lower and ultimately to a new low for 2025, breaking below the prior October 2024 low and nearing an important confluence of support around 1.36443. This level marks the base of a multi-month swing area and intersects with a rising trend line that has defined the broader bullish structure since late 2023. A clean break below this zone would tilt the bias more clearly to the downside from a longer-term technical perspective.

Hourly chart view:

On the hourly chart, buyers made a run last week above the 50% retracement of the May decline at 1.38505 but failed to hold gains. That failure set the stage for renewed downside momentum, with sellers pushing the price below the 100-hour moving average on Friday (blue line on the chart below). The pair stayed below that MA on intraday corrections—reinforcing the bearish tone—and eventually broke below the key swing area between 1.3749 and 1.3772 into the weekly close.

Today, early upside stalled near the underside of that broken swing area, and fresh selling pressure pushed USDCAD to a new low for the year, briefly dipping below 1.3685. However, the break could not be sustained, raising questions about bearish conviction. The inability to hold that new low may hint at near-term exhaustion, making 1.3685 a key pivot point. A decisive move below would reaffirm downside momentum, while continued failure could invite dip buyers and a possible rebound.

Later this year,
ForexLive.com
is evolving into
investingLive.com, a new destination for intelligent market updates and smarter
decision-making for investors and traders alike.