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Investinglive Americas FX news wrap 28 Jul: USD rises after US/EU trade deal. Gold lower | investingLive

The USD move higher vs the major currencies after the EU/US agreement.

Some reasons:

  • The agreement eased fears of a major transatlantic trade war, boosting overall investor confidence in U.S. economic resilience.

  • Less trade uncertainty tends to support dollar demand, especially from global investors seeking stability and yield.

  • The deal imposes a 15% base tariff on EU exports (cars, semiconductors, pharmaceuticals), while the EU agreed to buy $750B in U.S. energy and military goods.

  • This tilted trade benefits toward the U.S., boosting expectations for improved U.S. trade balances, which can support the dollar.

  • The US is not expected to cut rates when the FOMC meets this week, and although the expectation is that the Fed has room to cut while the EU has already moved, the Fed is unlikely to have a lot of room to go too low despite Trumps claim that rates should be at 1%.

  • The S&P 500 hit a record high, signaling confidence in U.S. growth, which supports capital flows into U.S. assets — and the dollar

Last week, Trump said that you “don’t sell anything with a stronger dollar” but there is room to roam higher if things get moving.

Overall, the USD was the strongest vs the EUR with a gain of 1.31%. The USD also moved over 1% vs the CHF (+1.08%) and by 0.75% vs both the AUD and the NZD.

Gold prices fell for the fourth consecutive session, pressured by a stronger U.S. dollar. The metal has dropped from a high of $3438 to $3314 today, with intraday lows touching $3301 before a modest rebound into the close.

On the daily chart, gold broke below a key trend line support at $3327, signaling increased bearish momentum. The next downside targets include:

  • June low at $3286

  • June 27 swing low at $3255

  • 100-day moving average at $3242.55, a critical support level that has not been breached since January 6

The break of trend support combined with sustained USD strength could open the door for a deeper retracement if buyers fail to defend the 100-day MA.

Gold down for the 4th day in a row.

Crude oil rose today on a mix of geopolitical tension and trade optimism. President Trump accelerated the deadline for Russia to agree to a Ukraine truce, raising the risk of tougher energy sanctions. The EU also imposed new sanctions on Russian oil and tankers. Meanwhile, news of U.S.-EU and U.S.-China trade deals boosted confidence in global demand. A record S&P 500 close and reports that OPEC+ may pause output hikes further supported prices, despite a stronger dollar.

A snapshot of the closing stock levels shows:

  • Dow -0.14%
  • S&P +0.02%
  • Nasdaq +0.33%

In the US debt market:

  • 2 year yield 3.929%, +1.3 basis points.
  • 5-year yield 3.971%, +1.9 basis points
  • 10 year yield 4.413%, +2.8 basis points
  • 30 year yield 4.959%, +3.0 basis points