If you thought this round of non-farm payrolls revisions was bad, wait until September | investingLive

US President Donald Trump fired the head of the Bureau of Labor Statistics on Friday after getting jobs numbers he didn’t like. It’s an extremely concerning move for anyone hoping to trade based on reliable economic data. it’s also reminiscent of Argentina and various other despotic regimes and it’s never ended well.

At some point, it’s going to be awfully difficult to trust the numbers but we will have to wait and see now long it takes to restructure the organization.

The next non-farm payrolls report is September 5 and it will feature annual benchmark revisions for April 2024- March 2025. It’s a report that often comes with some big shifts in the employment picture and Goldman Sachs is out with a note saying it won’t be a pretty one.

“The Bureau of Labor Statistics will publish a preliminary estimate of the benchmark revision to March 2025 non-farm payrolls on September 9th. We estimate a downward revision on the order of 550-950k (or a 45-80k downward revision to monthly payroll growth over April 2024-March 2025).”

Now most of that will fall in the Biden period but it’s likely to be further fuel in a movement that’s increasingly inclined to manipulate the numbers.

As for the real economy, the reason we’re likely to see downward revisions and continuing low jobs numbers is the crackdown on illegal immigration and the reversal of growth in the labor force.