USDCAD technical analysis: Sellers lean against resistance. Push lower. | investingLive
The USDCAD surged to fresh highs following President Trump’s announcement of a sweeping 35% tariff on Canadian imports—among the most aggressive trade measures for major countries. That news initially triggered heavy CAD selling. However, the momentum shifted after a softer-than-expected U.S. jobs report failed to sustain the upside drive.
In response, USDCAD reversed sharply lower, breaking back below the 100-day moving average (currently at 1.28128). It also slipped beneath the 100-hour moving average, signaling a shift in near-term control. The downside move briefly tested a key swing area between 1.3749 and 1.3759 before bouncing into the close. That rebound attempted a retest of the 100-day MA, but buyers couldn’t break through.
Today’s price action has been choppy, but with a bearish tilt. At session highs, the pair stalled right at the May 2025 high of 1.37969, reinforcing resistance at that level. Price is now oscillating around the June high of 1.37735, lacking conviction in either direction until the last hour or so, with the pair dipping to new lows. The latest dip just tagged the upper boundary of the 1.3749–1.3759 swing zone. A decisive break below 1.3749 would open the door toward the rising 200-hour moving average at 1.3738.
Bottom line: The market is at a technical crossroads. As long as the price holds below the 100-day MA and closer the May high at 1.37969 and June high at 1.3773, the risk remains tilted to the downside. A break below 1.3749 would strengthen that bearish case, with the final hurdle the 200 hour MA .