USDCAD technical analysis: USDCAD stuck in a standoff: Will Buyers or Sellers Prevail? | investingLive
The USDCAD is caught between rock-solid support and formidable resistance, and the market is waiting for one side to crack.
On the downside, buyers continue to defend the 1.3762/1.3759–1.3749 zone—a powerful confluence of the 38.2% retracement, the rising 200-hour MA, and a well-defined swing high area. On the topside, sellers are standing firm at 1.3810, where the 100-day MA (Friday’s ceiling) aligns with the 100-hour MA, creating a brick wall of resistance.
This standoff is clear: stay below 1.3810 and the bias leans lower, with a break of the support cluster opening the door toward 1.3726 (50% retracement) and 1.36908 (61.8%).
A push above 1.3810 would flip the script, forcing shorts to cover and targeting 1.3860 and 1.3890. For now, it’s a textbook battle of levels—and traders are watching for the first clean break to set the tone.
Key levels:
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Resistance: 1.3810, 1.3860, 1.3878 (hgh from Friday)
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Support: 1.3762 / 1.3759–1.3749, 1.3726
The United States has increased tariffs on Canadian goods not protected under USMCA to 35%, with penalties up to 40% on items routed through third countries to avoid duties. Key targeted sectors include steel, aluminum, autos and auto parts, lumber, and other industrial goods. Additional tariffs are planned on semiconductors and pharmaceuticals, potentially rising to 150–250% over the next year.
Canada has responded with 25% counter-tariffs on roughly C$30 billion worth of U.S. goods, hitting sectors such as steel, aluminum, and certain vehicles. While some tariffs were eased earlier this year, Canadian officials maintain that most remain in place. Negotiations have been ongoing but remain tense, with no breakthrough so far.
Most Canadian exports—up to 95%—are still protected under USMCA, shielding them from new U.S. duties. However, political pressure is mounting in both countries, and escalation risks remain high if either side moves forward with additional tariff measures. Canada continues to engage in talks but has signaled it could walk away if the U.S. pushes further increases.
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