Tariff shock sends 2025 oil demand growth to less than half earlier forecasts | investingLive

S&P Global sees tariffs slowing 2025 oil demand growth

Despite avoiding a major global recession, higher tariffs are expected to slow world oil demand sharply in 2025, according to S&P Global Commodity Insights. The group now forecasts demand growth of 635,000 barrels a day — less than half the 1.3 million b/d projected before U.S. President Donald Trump’s April tariff announcements.

The downgrade reflects weaker-than-expected consumption in the U.S., China, the Middle East and Eurasia. The International Energy Agency has also warned that key growth hubs such as Brazil, India and Singapore could tip into contraction if conditions worsen. India’s demand growth has already slowed to “just a trickle,” prompting the IEA to cut its 2025 forecast by 90,000 b/d.

Major traders have echoed the softer outlook. Glencore reported an 88% year-on-year drop in energy and steelmaking coal trade in the first half, while Trafigura warned markets could slow further following preemptive buying ahead of tariffs.

S&P notes that the stability of tariff policy will be key, with upcoming decisions on Mexico, China and Russian trade partners likely to shape the global demand picture.